供应变数较多，需求暂缺亮点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple member countries' strong desire to increase production and maintain market share may lead OPEC+ to decide to increase production. The effectiveness of compensatory production cuts remains uncertain due to poor historical implementation [2]. - Geopolitical conflict focus has shifted, and the future supply of Iran faces increased uncertainties. The US's sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may lead to supply disruptions in these regions [2]. - Non - OPEC+ production increase pressure may emerge in the second half of the year. The US is expected to have moderate production growth, while Brazil and Guyana's production expansion is expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year, and Canada - US trade friction is unfavorable for production increase [3]. - Global demand growth expectations remain cautious. Although China's crude oil processing volume has increased, terminal demand growth is weak, and the uncertainty of the US's foreign tariff policy makes it difficult to improve demand prospects and boost oil prices [4]. - In the second quarter, the oil price fluctuation center may decline slightly compared to the first quarter. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $65 - 80 per barrel. Geopolitical conflicts may provide short - term support, but the upside is limited by OPEC+'s high idle capacity [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1Q25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first quarter of 2025, oil prices first rose and then fell, with the center rising compared to the fourth quarter of last year. SC outperformed international oil prices. The average price of Shanghai crude oil futures in the first quarter is expected to rise by about 5.8% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and Brent rose slightly by 1.3% [17]. - In early January, oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks. The US's sanctions on Russia led to concerns about potential supply disruptions. SC rose more than Brent due to concerns about a decline in the arrival volume of sensitive oil. However, as the market digested the impact of sanctions, the premium of SC disappeared [17]. - Since late February, due to the uncertainty of US President Trump's tariff policy and the change in the US's attitude towards Russia, along with OPEC+'s confirmation of production increase in the second quarter, international oil prices fell below the key support level of $70 per barrel, and SC futures prices dropped to around 505 yuan per barrel [17]. 3.2 OPEC+ Production Increase and Compensatory Production Cuts - OPEC+ announced that eight countries would gradually and flexibly resume a voluntary production adjustment of 2.2 million barrels per day from April 1, 2025. If the compensatory production cut plan is fully implemented, it will be beneficial for supply - demand balance, but its effectiveness is doubtful [22]. - In the first two months of this year, OPEC+ overall production was 33.89 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the alliance's production ceiling. Some countries' over - production and production recovery trends are not conducive to maintaining market confidence in the production cut agreement [23]. - The updated compensatory production cut plan is to be completed by the end of June 2026, with relatively concentrated cuts from March to September this year. If fully implemented, OPEC+ production may decline before September [25]. 3.3 Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Uncertainties 3.3.1 US Sanctions on Iran - The US has restarted "maximum pressure" on Iran, and the fourth - round sanctions on Iran's oil sales were announced on March 20. Currently, Iran's crude oil supply is at a high level, but the impact of the new sanctions has not fully emerged, and the possibility of a substantial supply disruption remains uncertain [36][37]. 3.3.2 Venezuela's Supply Challenges - The US may revoke Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, and impose a 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil. Venezuela's crude oil production and export volume may decline due to these factors and the shortage of diluents [44][45]. 3.4 Non - OPEC+ Production Increase Pressure 3.4.1 US Oil Production - In 2024, the US average crude oil production was 13.22 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of this year, the number of oil rigs slightly increased, but it is not enough to significantly increase future production potential [52][53]. - Upstream companies' capital expenditure plans in 2025 are still cautious. In the context of a possible decline in the oil price center, producers are expected to maintain a cautious attitude towards capital expenditure, and the EIA expects a production growth of 380,000 barrels per day in 2025 [62]. 3.4.2 Other American Regions - Brazil's production is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, with the IEA predicting a growth of 180,000 barrels per day in 2025. Guyana's new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2025, with an average annual production growth of 100,000 barrels per day [63]. - Canada's production growth is mainly due to the expansion of the Trans - Mountain pipeline. However, the US - Canada tariff issue may affect Canada's production and trade [70]. 3.5 Global Demand Growth Expectations 3.5.1 China's Market - In the first quarter, China's domestic gasoline and diesel cracking spreads showed a differentiated trend and then declined in March. Terminal demand for gasoline and diesel was affected by the Spring Festival and weather, and new energy vehicles continued to have a negative impact on demand [77]. - Although China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year, the production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased, indicating a "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" transformation in the refining industry. In the second quarter, new refineries may increase processing volume, but import demand may still be suppressed [84][94]. 3.5.2 Global Market - In the first two months, European and American gasoline and diesel inventories basically followed seasonal patterns. Gasoline consumption in Europe and America was stable in January, and diesel consumption increased due to seasonal heating demand. The three major institutions have a cautious outlook on global demand growth in 2025 [96][103]. 3.6 Investment Advice - In the second quarter, supply - side uncertainties remain high, and demand - side support for oil prices is lacking. The oil price fluctuation center may decline slightly compared to the first quarter, and Brent is expected to trade in the range of $65 - 80 per barrel [106].