股指期货月报：关税政策来袭，4月以守为主-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, with overseas macro disturbances and uncertainties, the index is under pressure, and the market is likely to run cautiously under the dominance of weak reality. As negative factors are gradually released and the expectation of domestic loose policies rises, the market may gradually stabilize and show a volatile trend of first falling and then rising. In the long - term, technology remains the main line, but in the short - term, it is advisable to be defensive [2][20]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Market Review: In mid - and early March, strong policy expectations from the Two Sessions and domestic economic recovery expectations improved market risk appetite, pushing the index higher. After the policies were smoothly implemented and with increased domestic and overseas macro disturbances in April, the market showed a trend of rising first and then falling in March. As of March 28, the CSI 300 rose 0.65%, the SSE 50 rose 1.55%, the CSI 500 rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.03%. IF fell 0.41%, IH rose 1.19%, IC rose 0.53%, and IM fell 2.44%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IM held by the top 20 institutional members increased, while that of IC decreased [4]. - Liquidity and Capital: As of March 28, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 13.7 basis points, and DR007 dropped 7.53 basis points, with the inter - bank market interest rate declining marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 965.295 billion, with 647.154 billion from the main board and 262.187 billion from the GEM. The margin trading balance increased by about 23.194 billion. Foreign capital data was not released [4][5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In March, the manufacturing PMI index showed seasonal recovery and continued expansion. The "new orders - finished goods inventory" index improved, and the decline of "factory price - raw material purchase price" narrowed, but manufacturing enterprises still faced profit pressure. Supply exceeded demand, and the export order index continued to contract. Large enterprises continued to expand with a slowing slope, while small and medium - sized enterprises were still below the boom - bust line. The economic recovery requires further policy stimulus, and in April, the Politburo meeting may be in a wait - and - see state with limited possibility of policy surprises, and the economy is likely to recover slowly [13][15]. Views and Strategies - Overseas Situation: In the US, economic growth and the labor market slowed marginally in February, inflation pressure remained obvious. Trump's tariff policy increased uncertainty, and the market was worried about the US economic downturn. The probability of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut this year is high, but the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in the short - to - medium - term. In early April, market uncertainty increased, leading to a decline in US stocks and a rise in US bonds [19]. - Domestic Situation: With the implementation of the Fed's March monetary policy and the resurgence of tariff concerns in April, the risk appetite of the equity market decreased, and the index entered an adjustment phase. Domestic economic data shows that further recovery needs policy support, and market sentiment is cautious with a preference for a defensive style. The investment strategy is that the style turns defensive, with IM and IC in correction and IF and IH in oscillation [20].