Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude oil is expected to experience a callback due to the release of geopolitical risks, potential price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and other factors [1][3][4] - LPG will follow the oil price in a callback, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [1][6][9] - L is expected to be weak in the short - term and face high device commissioning pressure in the long - term [1][10][11] - PP will be weak in the short - term and face device commissioning pressure in the long - term [1][12][14] - PVC will have a low - level shock in the short - term and a potential upward trend during the spring maintenance period, but long - term overcapacity will limit the rebound [1][15][17] - PX will be weak in the short - term, with limited supply - demand improvement and weak cost support, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1][18][19] - PTA will be weak, with expected supply - side relief but weakening demand expectations, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol will be weak, with supply - side pressure and weakening demand expectations, and range - bound operation is recommended [1][24][25] - Bottle chips will be weak, with increasing supply pressure but positive demand expectations and falling inventory, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [1][27][28] - Glass is expected to experience a callback due to insufficient sales sustainability [1][30][31] - Soda ash will be weak, with increasing supply and limited demand, and high inventory pressure [1][32][33] - Methanol will be strong in the short - term but face negative feedback from downstream profits, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [1][35][36] - Urea is recommended for short - selling, with increasing supply pressure and weakening demand expectations [1] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Last Friday, international oil prices declined, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.79%, and domestic SC down 0.31% [2] - Basic Logic: The recent oil price increase was driven by US sanctions, but news of potential Saudi price cuts and other factors led to a callback. Supply - side factors include Iraq's large oil reserves and exports, while demand in some countries decreased. US inventory data showed a decline in crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic inventory [3] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the oil price center is likely to move down after the third quarter. In the short - term, it is recommended to sell call spread options, with SC focusing on the range of [530 - 550] [4] LPG - Market Review: On March 28, the PG main contract closed at 4620 yuan/ton, down 0.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [5][7] - Basic Logic: After the continuous rebound of oil prices, the upward pressure increased. LPG's fundamentals improved, with a decrease in commodity volume, an increase in downstream start - up, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [8] - Strategy Recommendation: As the upward resistance of the oil price increases, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sell bull spread options, with PG focusing on the range of [4550 - 4650] [9] L - Market Review: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day [11] - Basic Logic: On the supply side, new production capacities have been put into operation, and some import windows are open. On the demand side, the agricultural film is in the seasonal peak season. In the short - term, it will follow the market sentiment and be weak, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies [11] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies, with L focusing on the range of [7630 - 7770] [11] PP - Market Review: The L - PP05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread increased by 58 yuan/ton [13] - Basic Logic: On the supply side, new production capacities are expected to be put into operation. On the demand side, downstream start - up has recovered, but orders are slow to recover. In the short - term, it will follow the cost side and be weak, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds, with PP focusing on the range of [7290 - 7390] [14] PVC - Market Review: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton month - on - month [16] - Basic Logic: On the supply side, new production capacities have been added, and some devices are planned for maintenance. On the demand side, downstream start - up has increased seasonally. In the short - term, the market will be in a low - level shock, and in the spring maintenance period, it is recommended to go long on dips [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips, with V focusing on the range of [5060 - 5180] [17] PX - Market Review: On March 28, the PX spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the PX05 contract closed at 6932 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [18] - Basic Logic: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand from PTA devices is weakening. Supply - demand improvement is limited, and the cost support is weak. In the short - term, it will follow the oil price, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [19] - Strategy Recommendation: PX focuses on the range of [6820 - 6950] [20] PTA - Market Review: On March 28, the PTA spot price in East China was 4905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the TA05 contract closed at 4894 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [21] - Basic Logic: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is relatively high. The market will follow the cost, and there are opportunities to buy on dips, but the rebound height may be limited [22] - Strategy Recommendation: TA focuses on the range of [4820 - 4900] [23] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On March 28, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4508 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, and the EG05 contract closed at 4451 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton [24] - Basic Logic: Recent device maintenance has increased, but the import volume is high, and the supply - side pressure remains. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. The cost support is weak, and the market will be in a weak shock, with range - bound operation recommended [25] - Strategy Recommendation: EG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4470] [26] Bottle Chips - Market Review: On March 28, the spot price of PET bottle chips in East China was 6090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the PR main contract closed at 6070 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [27] - Basic Logic: Bottle chip devices are increasing production, and the supply pressure is increasing. The soft drink is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April. Attention should be paid to buying on dips [28] - Strategy Recommendation: PR focuses on the range of [6010 - 6080] [29] Glass - Market Review: The spot market price was stable, the futures price gave back the gains, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts were zero [30] - Basic Logic: On the supply side, the start - up rate and production capacity utilization rate decreased. On the demand side, downstream replenishment led to inventory reduction, but the market is uncertain about the demand recovery. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of sales and orders [31] - Strategy Recommendation: FG focuses on the range of [1160 - 1200] [31] Soda Ash - Market Review: The heavy soda ash spot price was partially lowered, the futures price was in a weak shock, the basis widened slightly, the warehouse receipts increased, and the forecasts decreased [33] - Basic Logic: On the supply side, the spring maintenance is coming to an end, and the supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the downstream glass price rebounded, but the actual transaction was cautious. The inventory has been decreasing for six weeks but remains high. The market is in a weak position [33] - Strategy Recommendation: SA focuses on the range of [1370 - 1400] [34] Methanol - Market Review: On March 28, the methanol spot price in East China was 2651 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2541 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [35] - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure remains high due to lower - than - expected spring maintenance and increasing overseas supply. The demand is relatively good, and the inventory is decreasing. The cost support is weak. In the short - term, it will be strong, but the negative feedback from downstream profits will limit the rebound. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [35] - Strategy Recommendation: MA focuses on the range of [2540 - 2590] [36] Urea - Market Review: Not provided in the given content - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is seasonally decreasing but remains relatively high. The cost support is weak [1] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell, with UR focusing on the range of [1860 - 1910] [1]
中辉期货日刊-2025-03-31
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-03-31 10:50