Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish" in 2025. The 24/25 season is expected to have a global production - demand shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have a surplus, but weather conditions may change the supply situation [60][100]. - The domestic sugar market is more resistant to decline than the international market due to tightened import syrup control policies. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile, but in the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern [101]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 25Q1, the international trade flow of sugar was in short supply, and both domestic and international futures prices fluctuated strongly. The price movements were affected by factors such as international demand, Indian export policies, Brazilian inventory, and weather conditions [2][4]. 2. Fundamental Situation of Major Producing Countries Brazil - As of February 28, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was at a low level in recent years, down 50.9% year - on - year. If the new season's early - stage crushing is slow, the international trade flow from April to May will be limited [9]. - In the first quarter, rainfall in the main producing areas was low, and many institutions lowered their sugar production estimates for the 25/26 season. The rainfall from late March to April is crucial. If it is insufficient, the estimates may be further reduced [19]. - The profit from sugar production is still better than that of ethanol. The exchange rate of the Brazilian real affects the "ethanol bottom" and sugar prices. It is initially estimated that the sugar - making ratio in the 25/26 season will increase to about 50% [31]. India - In the 24/25 season, many sugar mills closed early, and production estimates were lowered. As of March 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 2371.5 million tons, a decrease of 16.11% year - on - year. The estimated net sugar production is 2640 million tons, with a production - demand gap of 210 million tons [35]. - In the 25/26 season, if the weather is normal, sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with an estimated total sugar production of about 3800 million tons and a net sugar production of 3200 - 3300 million tons [51]. Thailand - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was lower than expected. In the 25/26 season, due to the decline in the price of competing crops and good sugarcane planting benefits, the planting area is expected to increase, and sugar production is expected to reach 1150 million tons [56]. 3. Global Production - Demand Pattern - For the 24/25 season, most international institutions expect a global production - demand shortage of 300 - 400 million tons, and the ISO estimates a shortage of 488 million tons. For the 25/26 season, most institutions expect a surplus of 200 - 300 million tons, but weather conditions may change this situation [60]. 4. International Market Outlook - The ICE raw sugar May contract is in a situation of tight supply. Before the Brazilian sugar mills start crushing, bulls may speculate. The contract is expected to remain strong, with a trading range of 17 - 18 cents on the lower end and 20 - 21 cents on the upper end [61]. - The international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the weather and crushing progress in major producing countries [62]. 5. Chinese Market Situation Production - In the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the second consecutive year to about 1080 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the planting area in Guangxi [70]. - The production of beet sugar is expected to increase significantly, but there may be problems with the outflow of beet sugar warehouse receipts [71]. Consumption - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in China was at a high level in the same period over the years, and the sales volume in February was the highest in the past 12 years. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was at a high level, but the industrial inventory was higher than the average in the past 5 and 10 years [80]. - Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, the spot market is slow, and the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi is high [82]. Import - In 2025, the import volume of sugar is expected to be low in the first half of the year and high in the second half. The import volume in the first quarter was low, and it is estimated that the arrival volume will increase after May [85]. - The import of syrup and premixed powder is blocked, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in the 24/25 season. The import cost of sugar in China will be re - anchored to the out - of - quota import cost [93]. 6. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions International Market - The ICE raw sugar May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side variables caused by adverse weather [100]. Domestic Market - In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited. The 5 - month contract has a resistance level of 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton. In the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [101]. - For inter - period arbitrage, it is recommended to use the positive arbitrage strategy of buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts between the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 contracts. For speculative investors, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying domestic contracts and selling international contracts [101][102].
白糖：熊市非坦途，关注天气带来的供应变数
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-03-31 11:14