美股策略周报：市场情绪再转弱，防守为主-2025-03-31

Macro Data - U.S. new home sales in February were seasonally adjusted at an annualized rate of 676,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, slightly below the expected 680,000 units, and above the previous value of 664,000 units[7] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 were 224,000, better than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 225,000; the four-week moving average decreased by 2.0% to 223,500, indicating overall stability in the job market[8] - February core PCE year-on-year increased to 2.8%, above the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.6%; month-on-month, it rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[8] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index briefly improved before entering the 'extreme fear' zone again, closing at 22 points; only two of its seven components (volatility and junk bond demand) were neutral, while the other five showed extreme fear[16] - Global equity markets fell by 1.4% for the week, with emerging markets down 0.9% and developed markets down 1.5%[16] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5% for the week, with only 222 stocks rising, accounting for 44% of the index, a significant decrease from the previous week[23] - In terms of style, large-cap value outperformed small-cap value, while small-cap growth outperformed large-cap growth; specifically, large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value -0.5%) > small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value -1.1%) > small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth -2.1%) > large-cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth -2.6%)[18] Sector Performance - Among 36 sectors in the U.S. stock market, 11 sectors rose while 25 fell, with significant gains in sectors like business services, food and beverage, and telecommunications; 24 sectors outperformed the S&P 500 index[21] - The strongest sector was business services, with an estimated average daily capital inflow of approximately $2.37 billion, while the semiconductor sector had the weakest with an estimated average daily outflow of $103.2 billion[21] Strategy Recommendations - Despite the unexpected rise in core PCE and increasing inflation expectations, the market anticipates rate cuts in June (92% probability), September (90% probability), and December (96% probability), indicating a growing pessimism about economic prospects[21] - A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on assets like gold (GLD) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK_B)[21]