ACC(600585) 华泰证券·2025-03-31 11:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cement prices in the eastern region, which is anticipated to support profit growth due to improved pricing dynamics [19][24] - The company has maintained a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of -22% as of the end of 2024, indicating robust operational resilience [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 91,030 million in 2024, with a decline of 35.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 7,696 million, down 26.2% year-on-year [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 1.88, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.29 by 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The eastern and central regions account for over 50% of the company's main revenue, and the recovery in these areas is crucial for profit generation [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cement prices, with a 15% year-on-year rise in the price of PO42.5 bulk cement in the eastern region as of March 28, 2025 [24] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced capital expenditures, with planned reductions of 18% and 20% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a further 23% reduction planned for 2025 [4] - The company has achieved a comprehensive cost of RMB 187.25 per ton for self-produced cement clinker, which is lower than its domestic peers [61] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 11 operational clinker production lines generating approximately 16.5 million tons annually, representing 6% of its total global capacity [3][39] - The overseas business has shown stable profitability, with a significant increase in profit from RMB 1.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024 [42] Aggregate Business Development - The company has increased its aggregate production capacity to 163 million tons by the end of 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [48] - The aggregate business has generated revenue of RMB 4.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [51]