华金期货生猪周报-2025-03-31

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Supply is sufficient, demand is recovering slowly, and pig prices are mainly in a consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2505 closed at 13,225, down 130 (-1.0%); LH2507 closed at 13,440, up 45 (0.3%); LH2509 closed at 14,000, unchanged (0.0%) [3][7] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg (-0.7%); the price in Henan was 14.61 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg (-0.7%). The average slaughter weight was 123.9 kg, up 0.06 kg (0.0%) [3] - Spread data: The 07 - 05 spread was 215, up 175; the 09 - 05 spread was 775, up 130. The 5 - month basis was 1385, up 30; the 7 - month basis was 1170, down 145 [3][13] - Slaughter data: The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up; the frozen product storage rate was 17.14%, up [3] - Profit and cost data: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 121.87 yuan/head, up; the profit from purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, up. The standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, up; the live - white spread was 4.26 yuan/kg, down [3] - Warehouse receipt data: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 65, a decrease of 679 [3][13] Group 5: Piglet and Sow Market - The average price of weaned piglets was 528.57 yuan/head, up 17.62 yuan/head. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged. The domestic inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [21] Group 6: Pig Slaughter and Market Conditions - The national average slaughter weight was 123.84 kg, up 0.09 kg. The average slaughter price was 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. The monthly plan completion rate of large - scale farms was good, and there was no concentrated selling of medium and large pigs [24] - The national average standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared to last week [28] - The weekly slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up 0.34 percentage points. The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.44%, down 0.38 percentage points. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises was 17.14%, up 0.09 percentage points [31] Group 7: Profit and Pig - Grain Ratio - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 121.87 yuan/head, up 20.38 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, down 12.59 yuan/head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to slightly increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [40] Group 8: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volume and high slaughter weight, with sufficient market supply [43] - Demand: It is currently the traditional consumption off - season, with poor market demand. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased [43] - Cold storage: The cold storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is low, and the cold storage capacity is expected to increase in the later stage [43] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [43] - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43] - Market sentiment: Farmers are relatively optimistic, while the animal health and frozen product trading sectors are relatively pessimistic; the overall market sentiment is neutral [43]