滞胀逻辑叠加避险需求，黄金屡创新高

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has broken through historical highs due to the resonance of long - term credit logic and safe - haven demand. The strengthening of the "stagflation" expectation in the US is the core driving force. The long - term support for gold comes from the suppression of real interest rates under the stagflation logic and the global de - dollarization trend, while silver is dragged down by its industrial attributes but has a long - term positive outlook [4]. - The market continues to price in the spiral risk of "stubborn inflation - economic slowdown", indicating that the US dollar will remain under short - term pressure. The downward trend of real interest rates under economic slowdown pressure provides support for precious metals [2]. - The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The continuous growth of demand and limited supply support the long - term upward trend of silver prices [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, precious metals broke through historical highs. The "stagflation" expectation in the US was strengthened, with the core PCE in February rising to 2.8% year - on - year, a new high since December 2024. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties drove funds into safe - haven assets [4]. 2. Currency and Financial Attributes - US Dollar Index: It showed a volatile decline this week, affected by stagflation concerns and policy expectations. The continuous decline of the US consumer confidence index, Trump's auto tariffs, weak initial jobless claims data, and the unexpected core PCE on Friday intensified stagflation panic, causing the US dollar index to fall significantly. The US dollar is expected to remain under short - term pressure [2][14]. - Interest Rate Policy: The Fed's interest rate policy shows the characteristics of "hawk - dove game in the stagflation dilemma". The March FOMC meeting lowered the 2025 GDP forecast and raised the core PCE forecast, and the dot - plot showed a weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation. The market still expects three interest - rate cuts in 2025, with a 64.9% probability of a cut in June and a 75% probability in September. If tariffs push up inflation in April, hawkish expectations may be strengthened again, but the downward trend of real interest rates supports precious metals [17]. - US Treasury Bonds: The 1 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.04%, the 10 - year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.27%, and the 10 - year real yield fell 2 basis points to 1.90%. The yield spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds widened [19]. 3. Economic Data - PMI: The US manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in February, showing continuous expansion but with new orders and production indicators weakening. The service PMI was 53.5, indicating accelerating expansion. The composite PMI was 51.6, a new low since April 2024 [27][28][29]. - Employment: In February, the non - farm payrolls increased by 151,000, slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending March 22 were 224,000 [30]. - Inflation: In February, the US CPI and PPI were both lower than expected. The CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI rose 3.2% year - on - year. Traders increased their bets on Fed interest - rate cuts [36]. 4. Supply and Demand - Gold: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for four consecutive months. It is expected that central banks' gold - buying will continue to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to remain in net inflow [43]. - Silver: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The growth of demand in new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics fields and limited supply support the long - term upward trend of silver prices [3]. 5. Market Indicators - ETF and CFTC Positions: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the gold SPDR持仓量 increased by 0.15% to 931.94, and the silver SLV持仓量 increased by 220.78 tons to 13,944.69 tons. The gold CFTC net long positions decreased by 8,136 contracts to 249,796 contracts, and the silver net long positions increased by 1,348 contracts to 60,950 contracts [45]. - Inventory: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the SHFE gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,675 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipts decreased by 46,710 kilograms to 1,155,203 kilograms. The Comex gold inventory increased by 1,456,469.54 ounces to 43,347,625.92 ounces, and the silver inventory increased by 14,333,197.63 ounces to 472,420,049.90 ounces [48]. - Trading Volume: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the average trading volume of gold futures increased by 44.37% to 282,652.60 kilograms, and that of silver futures increased by 24.16% to 589,061.80 kilograms [51]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the gold - silver ratio declined slightly, with the Shanghai gold - silver ratio at 84.92 and the New York gold - silver ratio at 89.55. Shorting the gold - silver ratio lacks logical support currently, but if it drops significantly in the short term, going long can be considered [61]. 6. Operation Suggestions - Gold: Maintain a long - term bullish view. If there is a certain degree of correction, investors can gradually build long - term positions [2]. - Silver: Although it has been dragged down by industrial attributes recently, the long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Investors are advised to operate with reference to gold, use collar structures to hedge risks if necessary, and build long - term long positions in batches after a sufficient correction [3].