生产与货运修复，新房成交收敛

Report Information - Report Title: Production and Freight Recovery, New Home Transaction Convergence [1] - Report Date: March 31, 2025 - Researchers: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Yuhang, Wu Jing - Core Viewpoint: In the fourth week of March, most of the production-side operating rates and freight volumes continued the improvement trend, but the construction steel transaction data fluctuated. The cement performance was stronger than that of the black sector, which may indicate the release of infrastructure demand and the weakness of housing construction. The export throughput was strong, but the freight rates were differentiated, and the outlook for external demand was highly uncertain. The year-on-year growth of new home filing transactions declined, and the end-of-quarter sales push was mediocre. The second-hand housing market basically maintained its previous level. In terms of prices, the black series rebounded from a low level, but the sentiment was cautious, and coal and cement prices were still falling [2] Industry Analysis Consumption - Travel: The travel popularity remained at a seasonal high, and the operating rates of domestic and international flights increased [3] - Commodity Consumption: The automobile sales were booming, with the year-on-year growth rates of retail and wholesale sales further increasing. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones continued to drive the market. The textile consumption also showed signs of warming up. The year-on-year growth rate of express parcel pickups slightly declined but remained at a high level [3] Real Estate - New Homes: The year-on-year growth rate of new home transactions remained positive last week but slowed down (the year-on-year growth rate of new home transactions in the first four weeks of March was -4.76%, compared with 8.35% previously), and the growth in first-tier cities also slowed down [4] - Second-hand Homes: The year-on-year growth rate of second-hand home transactions declined last week (the year-on-year growth rate of second-hand home transactions in the first four weeks of March was 29.05%, compared with 28.97% previously). High-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu maintained their resilience, while the recovery in second and third-tier cities needed further observation [4] - Housing Prices: The housing prices were yet to stabilize. The housing price index of 46 cities decreased month-on-month, and only one city saw a price increase (the same as last week) [5] - Land: The land auctions of high-quality plots in core cities heated up, and the premium rates in many places reached new highs. The volume slightly increased but not significantly [5] Production - Comprehensive Index: In terms of electricity, the daily coal consumption decreased, slightly lower than the seasonal average. The high-level supply of hydropower may have caused some disturbances, and the coal price decreased month-on-month. The truck traffic volume generally followed the seasonal trend [6] - Mid and Upstream: The operating rates of most blast furnaces, coking enterprises, etc., continued to recover [6] - Downstream: The operating rates of most chemical industry chains recovered, and the operating rates of semi-steel and all-steel tire production remained at a high level [6] Construction - Capital Availability: The capital availability rate of sample construction sites was accelerating. Structurally, the capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects (59.59%) was higher than that of housing construction projects (47.43%) [7] - Cement: The supply and demand of cement improved, with demand outperforming supply. The inventory remained at a low level, and the price decreased month-on-month. After adjusting for the Lunar New Year, the year-on-year decline in the cement mill operating rate narrowed, and the capacity utilization rate significantly increased compared with the previous period [7][18] - Black Sector: The supply of the black sector recovered, but the demand was weak. The inventory level decreased, and the prices were differentiated. After adjusting for the Lunar New Year, the blast furnace operating rate and the production of rebar and wire rods increased year-on-year, but the weekly year-on-year growth rate of construction steel sales remained at a low level, and the prices were differentiated [7][19] - Asphalt: The asphalt operating rate decreased, while the price increased month-on-month [7][19] External Demand - Freight Volume: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slightly recovered year-on-year and remained at a seasonal median level. The port throughput showed resilience, with the cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput accelerating month-on-month to a seasonal high [8] - Freight Rates: The RJ/CRB index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) decreased month-on-month, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased month-on-month. Most routes saw a decline, but the freight rate of the Southeast Asian route increased year-on-year, reflecting non-US or transshipment demand [8] Prices - Comprehensive Index: The domestic Nanhua Industrial Products Index and the overseas RJ/CRB Index increased month-on-month [12] - Crude Oil: The crude oil price increased due to concerns about supply caused by sanctions. The demand from emerging Asian markets (such as China and India) for industrial energy and transportation fuels increased, and the EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected [12][30] - Black Series: The black series rebounded from a low level, but the market sentiment was constrained by the insufficient release of demand. After digesting the previous negative factors such as weak real estate construction starts, tariff policy disturbances, and global economic uncertainties, the black series entered a stage of oscillatory recovery. However, the market sentiment remained cautious due to the uncertain demand [12][30] - Copper: The copper price was mainly driven by macro policies. The panic buying logic triggered by the US tariff policy continued, and arbitrage trading further pushed up the price. The concentrated release of demand in the domestic power grid, home appliances, and new energy vehicle sectors was positive for copper. However, the market sentiment was slightly constrained by the concern that the copper for arbitrage trading might not reach the customs in time after the policy was implemented [30]