4月投资策略及金股组合

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The report indicates that the effects of policies are becoming evident, with a gradual shift in the internal and external demand pattern expected to manifest in the second quarter of 2025. Domestic retail sales and fixed asset investment are showing steady improvement, while export growth is declining more significantly than imports, suggesting continued support for GDP from net exports in the first quarter [4][9]. - The report highlights that the performance verification period is underway, with corporate profit growth showing a year-on-year decline in January-February. Revenue growth is also slowing, and profit margins are experiencing seasonal declines. However, profit growth is expected to continue its recovery trend, influenced by the pace and intensity of policy implementation [4][10]. - The report notes an increased risk of stagflation in the U.S., which may affect global market risk appetite. The impending implementation of reciprocal tariffs could have significant impacts on regions outside of China, potentially escalating trade tensions and increasing the likelihood of U.S. stagflation or recession [4][10]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report lists a portfolio of recommended stocks for April 2025, including companies such as Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), and Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558.SZ), among others. Each company is selected based on its industry position and growth potential [3][11]. - Satellite Chemical is highlighted for its integrated industrial chain advantages and its leading position in domestic high-end new materials, with expectations for performance improvement as raw material costs stabilize and market demand recovers [12]. - Hengli Petrochemical is noted for maintaining high growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with strong profitability under high oil prices and a favorable dividend rate, indicating its long-term cash flow stability [12][13]. - Betta Pharmaceuticals is recognized for its innovative drug pipeline and market share growth, particularly in the non-small cell lung cancer sector, with several products gaining rapid market acceptance [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong certainty in structural market conditions, such as consumer and high-tech industries, while also considering high-dividend sectors in the short term [10]. ETF Recommendations - The report includes recommendations for ETFs, such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300.OF) and Haitong CSI Major Consumer ETF (159928.OF), which are expected to track their respective indices effectively [14]. - The report suggests that these ETFs may provide exposure to sectors that are likely to benefit from the ongoing economic recovery and structural shifts in the market [14].