东方战略周观察：如何理解新兴市场股市近期震荡

Group 1: Market Trends - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, are experiencing significant stock market volatility due to escalating U.S. tariff risks and weakening economic growth expectations[1] - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia saw a drop of over 7.1% on March 18, marking its largest single-day decline since 2011, and has fallen more than 20% since its historical high in September 2024[1] - Thailand's SET Index has decreased by 20.5% since its peak in October 2024, indicating a move towards a technical bear market[1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Indonesia is facing fiscal deficits and policy changes that undermine investor confidence, with a rare budget deficit reported in February 2025 due to weak commodity prices and increased tariffs from the U.S.[1] - The new Indonesian president's social welfare policies require an annual expenditure of $28 billion, which, combined with significant infrastructure costs, is expected to strain the capital market in the short term[1] - Thailand's exports to the U.S. reached $54.95 billion in 2024, and potential U.S. tariff increases could significantly impact key sectors like electronics, automotive, and food[2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Thai government has implemented several short-term measures to stabilize the stock market, including unconventional interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, but these have not effectively supported the market[2] - Both countries are likely to face challenges in attracting long-term capital inflows due to tightening dollar liquidity and the pressures of currency depreciation[3] - The effectiveness of unconventional market rescue policies may improve short-term market sentiment, but long-term trends will depend on the quality of economic growth and the implementation of measures to counter U.S. tariff impacts[3]