棉花周报：弱现实延续，郑棉震荡偏弱-2025-03-31

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the cotton market remains weak. The short - term focus is on the change of additional tariffs imposed by the US on April 2nd. There is a view that after the negative news is out on that day, risk assets may have a trend - based rebound. The disk has downstream point - price support below 13,500, but the rebound amplitude is limited by actual demand. In the medium - term, if the US economic downward pressure increases and inflation drops significantly, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further strengthened, one can consider buying Zhengzhou cotton at low prices in combination with supply - side themes [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Situation - Supply and Demand Forecast: According to the USDA's February report, in the 2024/25 cotton year, the global initial inventory is 1614.7 million tons, the output is 2600.7 million tons, the consumption is 2523.3 million tons, and the final inventory is 1696.3 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio is 67.23%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend. The global output is expected to increase by 5.72% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to increase by 1.37% year - on - year. The new year is still expected to have a supply surplus [6][8][11]. - Production Changes in Major Countries: In 2024/25, China's cotton production is expected to be 653.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.69%; the US production is expected to be 313.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%; India's production is expected to be 544.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57% [8]. - Consumption Changes in Major Countries: In 2024/25, China's cotton consumption is expected to be 816.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59%; India's consumption is expected to be 566.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.96%; Turkey's consumption is expected to increase by 6.05% year - on - year; Vietnam's consumption is expected to increase by 7.59% year - on - year [11]. - Overseas开机率: Overseas cotton mill operating rates have slightly rebounded [17]. 3.2 China's Situation - Import and Inventory: In 2024, China's cumulative cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year, but the inventory pressure in the bonded area is large. In December 2024, China imported about 14 million tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of about 3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 48.7%. From January to December 2024, China imported about 262 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of about 33.8%. As of the end of February, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 93.13 million tons, a decrease of 4.9 million tons from the end of last month; the disposable cotton inventory was 126.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.21 million tons from the end of last month [20][34]. - Profit and Operating Rates: China's cotton - spinning industry profit remains stable. The operating rate of cotton mills has increased slightly, while the operating rate of weaving mills is still insufficient. Downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time replenishment, and the initiative to replenish inventory is insufficient [24][28][31]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 28th, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 9,275, with 3,487 valid forecasts. The total amount of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 512,400 tons, compared with 495,900 tons on March 21st, indicating an increasing warehouse receipt pressure [37].