铜行业周报：本周线缆开工率环比下降2pct，6月家用空调排产同比增长16%-2025-03-31

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about copper prices rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in cable production rates and an increase in air conditioning production, indicating stable demand for copper [1][3]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: - As of March 28, 2025, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 1529 RMB/ton, down 706 RMB/ton from the previous week [2][48]. - Domestic copper concentrate production in December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][48]. - Global copper concentrate production in January 2025 was 1.905 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [2][52]. - Demand: - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable production rate of 72.86% as of March 27, 2025, down 1.67 percentage points from the previous week [3][74]. - Air conditioning production is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [1][93]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 3.4% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.2% [2][25]. - As of March 21, 2025, global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 572,000 tons, the highest for the same period in six years, down 1.4% week-on-week [2][25]. Futures Market Summary - As of March 28, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 214,000 lots, down 14.7% from the previous week [4][33]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 35.4% week-on-week, indicating a bullish sentiment in the futures market [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].