ANHUI EXPRESSWAY(600012) 华泰证券·2025-03-31 11:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue reached 7.092 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.94%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.669 billion RMB, up 0.55% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.604 RMB per share for the 2024 fiscal year, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% [1] - The company has completed the acquisition of two highways, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast by 9.7% to 1.88 billion RMB [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's toll revenue decreased by 5.2% due to weak traffic growth and construction activities causing detours [2] - The company's operating costs for toll roads decreased by 1.5% in 2024, with depreciation and maintenance costs down by 4.3% and 6.3% respectively [3] - The company recorded a fair value loss of 0.32 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to the decline in the price of a REIT [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 9.292 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 31.03% [6] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 1.879 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.57% [6] - The company has introduced a forecast for 2027 with a net profit of 1.62 billion RMB, anticipating a decline due to the impact of highway expansion [4] Valuation - The target price for the A-shares is set at 18.60 RMB and for H-shares at 15.80 HKD [7][8] - The DCF valuation method is used, with a WACC of 5.0% for A-shares and 6.5% for H-shares [4]