Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations due to the intertwining of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean planting area data and Sino - US trade developments [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal will have short - term fluctuations, following the trend of soybean meal, and the actual positive impact of the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal is limited [1][6]. - Palm oil is predicted to have short - term high - level fluctuations. Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, it shows a rebound due to certain events [1][8]. - Cotton is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation, with the market waiting for the official US cotton planting intention. The domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations [1][12]. - Red dates are expected to operate weakly in the short term, as the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [1][14]. - The price of live pigs is expected to decline slightly, with the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricting the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The Brazilian soybean production outlook is stable, and in Argentina, rainfall will return to above - normal levels in the next 15 days. China and the US have imposed reciprocal 10% tariffs on soybeans, and the trade dispute has temporarily ended. Domestic port and soybean inventories decreased this week, while oil - mill soybean meal inventories increased. From April to June, the monthly average soybean imports will exceed 10 million tons [1][3]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,168.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - Analysis: The short - term market is in a state of high - level fluctuations. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened due to the small reduction in the estimated US soybean planting area. Attention should be paid to the release of planting area data and Sino - US trade progress. Near - month contracts face the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills decreased this week, but the short - term supply is generally sufficient. China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but the actual positive impact is limited [6]. - Price Movement: The price has fallen from a high level and is currently in a narrow - range weak consolidation, following the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - Analysis: Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean area data [1][6]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: In March, the Ramadan festival led to a decline in international import demand, and Southeast Asian palm oil production is gradually recovering. The domestic supply is tight, and the spot trading of palm oil is still sluggish due to the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [8]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,673 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% [7]. - Analysis: Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, the price shows a rebound due to the Indonesian tariff adjustment and the US plan to increase the blending volume of biodiesel. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [1][8]. Cotton - Market Situation: Internationally, US cotton farmers are more likely to reduce planting areas, and US cotton exports have declined recently. Domestically, the new - season cotton planting area is expected to increase, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the import is shrinking. The downstream orders have improved slightly, but the export is under pressure [10][11]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract CF2505 closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% intraday. The domestic spot price decreased slightly by 0.01% [10]. - Analysis: The market is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation. The US cotton has a recovery expectation, and the domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations. Attention should be paid to the follow - up strength of consumption - promoting policies [1][12]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The trading volume in the market is low, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [13][14]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract CJ2505 closed at 9,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% intraday [14]. - Analysis: The short - term operation is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1][14]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, and the supply of standard pigs is sufficient. Although the demand has increased slightly, it is still weak overall [16]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract Lh2505 closed at 13,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% intraday. The domestic spot price remained stable [16]. - Analysis: The price is expected to decline slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricts the price rebound space. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17].
豆粕日报-2025-03-31
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-03-31 11:52