宏观策略周报：美国关税政策落地，全球风险偏好大幅降温-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards commodities; maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds. The ranking is: treasury bonds > stock indices > commodities. For crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, maintain a cautious and long - position attitude in the short term; for black metals, maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2] Core Viewpoints - Domestically, from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The economic operation started smoothly and better than expected. However, due to the continuous escalation of US tariff policies, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated, and market sentiment at home and abroad has cooled down, resulting in a decline in domestic risk appetite [2] - Internationally, the initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8, a three - month low, but the service and composite PMIs showed an unexpected rebound, indicating strong economic resilience. However, concerns about inflation and potential stagflation have emerged, and the labor market remains in good condition. The US announced a 25% tariff on non - US - made cars, triggering opposition from many countries and escalating the global tariff war, leading to a significant increase in risk aversion and a sharp decline in global risk appetite [2] - In the short term, the domestic stock market may experience a correction due to US tariff risks and a weakening RMB exchange rate, so maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards stock indices. The bond market may experience a short - term shock rebound, so be cautious about going long. The commodity market is generally volatile and strong, with short - term cautious long - positions for crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and a cautious and wait - and - see attitude for black metals [2] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Important News and Events - The US announced tariffs on countries trading with Venezuela and plans to impose additional tariffs on cars, wood, and chips. Many countries, including Germany, Canada, and Japan, opposed the US's 25% tariff on imported cars and may take countermeasures [3][4][5] - Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rates and inflation. For example, Bostic expected only one interest rate cut this year, and Goolsbee warned about the impact of inflation expectations on the Fed's interest rate cut plan [3][5] - Economic data showed that the US GDP in Q4 2024 was revised upwards, but the core PCE price index was revised downwards. The US 2 - month core PCE price index rebounded, and personal spending growth was weak, raising concerns about inflation and stagflation [6] - The central bank carried out a 4500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, achieving a net investment of 630 billion yuan. Many regions introduced new real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Commerce announced measures to support consumption and international consumption center cities [8][9][11] 2. This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - A series of economic data will be released this week, including industrial production, employment, inflation, and trade data from countries such as China, the US, Japan, and the eurozone [13] 3. Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets around the world generally declined last week, with the US stock market experiencing significant drops. Bond yields showed different trends, and commodity prices were mixed, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals showing relatively strong performance [14] 4. Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream data includes commodity price indices, energy prices, and coal and iron ore inventories. Mid - stream data covers steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and chemical products. Downstream data involves real - estate sales, automobile sales, and consumer prices [15][43][71] 5. Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Globally, US Treasury yields showed certain fluctuations. Domestically, the central bank's open - market operations and interest rates in the inter - bank market are important indicators of liquidity [82][84] 6. Global Financial Calendar - A detailed schedule of economic data releases from various countries and regions from March 31 to April 4, 2025, is provided, including industrial production, employment, inflation, and trade data [102]