攻守兼备：德邦证券4月研判及金股

Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, with strong industrial production growth and continued high manufacturing investment, offsetting the negative impact of declining real estate investment[2] - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, indicating a systemic change in mid-term macro logic, suggesting it is time to adjust expectations[11] - Key factors influencing asset allocation include the emergence of AI applications, the unsustainability of high interest rates and a strong dollar, and the gradual reduction of negative impacts from real estate[11] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH): The company is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons by June 2024, and is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the biodiesel market[14] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH): The company is experiencing a supply-demand turning point with inventory at a low level, and is expected to benefit from a favorable long-term supply-demand structure[18] - New Fengming (603225.SH): The company is positioned to benefit from a supply-demand turning point in polyester filament, with inventory levels remaining low and expected demand growth[21] Financial Performance Highlights - China Mobile (600941.SH): The company reported a revenue of RMB 4,837 billion in the personal market, with a mobile ARPU of RMB 48.5, reflecting a slight decline of 1.62% year-on-year[24] - Shandong Gold (600547.SH): The company's gold production increased by 10.51% to 46.17 tons in 2024, driven by improved mining capabilities and higher gold prices, with an average price of RMB 557.19 per gram, up 23.8% year-on-year[30] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH): The company reported a coal production of 137.57 million tons in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 49.9%[32] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, economic recovery not progressing as anticipated, and fluctuations in raw material prices impacting profitability[8] - The company’s performance may be affected by uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and domestic price pressures, particularly in sectors closely tied to domestic demand[12]