Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The capital replenishment plans of four major banks have been implemented, aligning with market expectations. The overall scheme balances market impact and fiscal costs, with larger financing scales leading to higher issuance premiums [3][4][11] - The average projected dividend yield for the six major banks' A-shares in 2025 is approximately 4.45%, while the H-shares (considering tax exemptions) yield around 5.5% [3][10] - The capital increase is expected to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio by 0.5% to 1.5%, remaining above the regulatory minimum by three percentage points, supporting high growth over the next five years [3][12][18] Summary by Sections Capital Replenishment Plans - The capital replenishment plans of four major banks have been announced, with sizes ranging from 100 billion to 165 billion, and price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.76, 0.69, and 0.78 [4][7][10] - The dilution effects on dividend yields and return on equity (ROE) have been analyzed, showing an average A-share dividend yield of 4.45% and H-share yield of 5.5% post-dilution [10][12] Financial Projections - The projected growth rates for risk-weighted assets (RWA) for major banks in 2024 are as follows: ICBC at 4.3%, CCB at -2.4%, ABC at 1.2%, BOC at 3.4%, BC at 6.4%, and PSBC at 5.3% [15] - The capital increase is expected to support stable growth over the next five years, with a focus on credit allocation to the real economy and risk mitigation [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that high-dividend stocks will remain favorable in the first half of the year, with specific recommendations for banks with high dividend yields and strong regional advantages [19]
折中平衡的方案,符合预期:银行资本四家大行资本补充方案落地
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-03-31 12:59