避险情绪再起，国债反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market will return to economic fundamentals and policy expectations after the positive news during the meetings has been digested. Attention should be paid to subsequent economic data and policy expectations, which are key factors affecting the bond market [2]. - The economic growth target for 2025 is 5%, and the CPI target is 2%. The government debt combination for 2025 includes a 4% deficit rate, 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points from last year. Fiscal policy is the main force in economic regulation, and its strengthening may weaken the loosening of monetary policy [2]. - The bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals as the impact of the stock market on the bond market weakens after the Two Sessions [3]. - Do not be overly bearish on the bond market and wait for policy guidance [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - 1.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - Due to the upcoming US tariff policy, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen. The stock market rebound after the Spring Festival has ended, and the stock - bond seesaw has intensified bond market fluctuations. Recently, the impact of the stock market on the bond market has weakened. With reduced exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of monetary loosening has increased again, and the bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The 3rd Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held from March 5th to March 11th, with main agendas including reviewing the government work report, examining the draft national economic and social development plan for 2025, and the draft central and local budgets for 2025 [13]. - The government will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and may cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity [13]. - Since February, at least 7 out of 19 private banks have lowered or are in the process of lowering deposit rates, and after the reduction, only the 3 - year fixed - deposit of Huatong Bank can reach a 2.9% interest rate [14]. - In February, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year [14]. - In the first two months of this year, China's goods trade started steadily, with the export scale reaching a record high for the same period. The total value of goods trade imports and exports was 6.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, but an increase of 1.7% after excluding non - comparable factors [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption have been implemented, and detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chains have been introduced. In February, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index rose to 50.4% and 51.1% respectively. The economic data shows that economic resilience still exists, but there is still deflation pressure, and consumption stimulus is still necessary [15]. - 3.2 Policy Aspect - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate, expenditure intensity, and the scale of government bond issuance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and in February, new RMB loans increased significantly, providing strong support for the real economy [20]. - 3.3 Capital Aspect - The tight capital situation eased on February 27th, and the pressure on the capital side has recently weakened, which supports the bond market. With the weakening of exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary loosening may increase. Currently, the capital level is similar to that in the third quarter of last year, and the year - end capital disturbance factors have basically disappeared [20]. - 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The government debt combination in 2025 leads to a significant increase in the broad deficit rate. As of March 3rd, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds have been issued, with about 1.9 trillion yuan issued in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of about 97%. The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, and the issuance of special bonds has also picked up speed recently [23]. - 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has started to decline from a historical high but remains at a high level, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of allocating to the bond market is currently low, and institutions are more likely to focus on the stock market. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly improved recently, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the previous period. The bond market is still in a bullish trend in terms of economic fundamentals, but it is greatly disturbed by the stock market in the short term and may return to economic fundamentals later [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Spring Festival, the A - share market has warmed up, and the stock - bond seesaw logic has continued. Affected by fiscal bond issuance, the capital side has been continuously tight, and the bond market has continued to decline. Currently, the downward momentum of the bond market has weakened, and the market is paying attention to the future trend of the stock market and policy expectations. The bond market will gradually return to economic fundamentals [29]