Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, with its load gradually declining and a promising de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. Given its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, leading to increased load and decreased processing fees. The terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. PTA should be treated with a sideways trading approach [2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA05 contract showed a sideways movement. The weekly opening price was 4872, the highest was 4948, the lowest was 4824, and the closing price was 4894, with a weekly increase of 16 or 0.33% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Short - term Boost for PX, Intensive Maintenance from March to April - In 2024, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity is coming to an end, with only a 3 - million - ton new capacity plan for Yulongdao. There is no new project expected in 2025. It is estimated that the domestic PX output from January to March 2025 will be 9.51 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.21%, and the import from January to February 2025 will be 1.395 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The current PX开工率 in China is 85.7% (- 0.5%), and in Asia is 77.4% (- 0.1%). The PX processing fee on Friday was 203 US dollars per ton (down 12 from last week). Multiple domestic and overseas PX plants have maintenance or production reduction plans. With the entry into the intensive maintenance season in late March, the PX load is declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. Supported by the short - term high load of polyester and its low valuation, the price support for PX is strengthening [5] 2.2 Limited Improvement in PTA Supply, Processing Fees Fluctuating at a Low Level - It is estimated that the domestic PTA output from January to February 2025 will be 11.81 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The average monthly load in February was around 79.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from January. The PTA load has increased to 79.3%, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The current PTA开工率 in China is 76.8% (+ 3.2%), and the spot processing fee on Friday was 231 yuan per ton (down 47 from last week). The 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. The PTA supply - demand pattern has improved recently, and attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April, which also affects the PX de - stocking intensity [8] 2.3 High Polyester Load May Be Lower Than Last Year - It is estimated that the domestic polyester output from January to February 2025 will be 11.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 74% (unchanged), the texturing load is 85% (+ 1%), the polyester开工率 is 91.5% (+ 2.7%), and the direct - spinning filament load is 94.9% (+ 2.3%). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY are 25.5 days (+ 0.4), 31.5 days (+ 1.0), and 33.1 days (- 0.5) respectively. The downstream weaving and texturing operations remained stable this week. Currently, the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. The sustainability of the operation depends on the order strength. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. In the polyester sector, although there was a concentrated restocking by downstream customers during the filament promotion this week, the strength was limited. With the decline in raw material prices, the downstream stocking mentality is cautious, and the filament inventory continues to accumulate slightly. In terms of textile and clothing exports from January to February 2025, the cumulative export was 42.88 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The export of textiles was 21.22 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the export of clothing was 21.66 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The two 10% tariff increases by the US have put pressure on textile and clothing export expectations. Overall, the PTA industry operation has dropped to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, while the polyester plant operation is acceptable. Affected by the high grey fabric inventory and few orders, the overall downstream load recovery is lower than expected, and the domestic demand shows no sign of improvement [9][11] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - As PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, its load is gradually declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. With its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April. The high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. Overall, the terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. A sideways trading approach should be adopted [13]
PTA：偏震荡思路对待
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-03-31 13:18