GUILIN FUDA (603166) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-31 14:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.648 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 79.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 538 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.4% and a year-on-year increase of 37.5%, aligning closely with expectations [5] - The company is benefiting from the significant growth in the PHEV market, with projected sales of 5.1385 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.4% [7] - The company is expanding its robot business, focusing on the production of planetary gear reducers and collaborating with Changban Technology to enhance its capabilities in precision transmission components [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.352 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.806 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.0% [6][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 104 million yuan in 2023 to 466 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 18.4% [6][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 25.6% by 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) projected to reach 15.8% [6][9] Business Segment Performance - The crankshaft segment is expected to generate 1.04 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, with a gross margin of 30.3% [7] - The precision forging segment is projected to achieve 200 million yuan in revenue, up 24.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.6% [7] - The gear segment is anticipated to see a decline in revenue to 92 million yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, but with an improved gross margin of 14.4% [7]