内外多空交织，连粕反套运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In March, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report on US and South American soybean production had a neutral impact. South American soybean harvest accelerated and exports increased, while US soybean exports were weak. However, the market expected a significant reduction in the intended planting area of new - season US soybeans, which supported the rebound of the US soybean futures after a decline. In China, due to the shortage of soybeans in oil mills and seasonal shutdown for maintenance, the operating rate of oil mills decreased continuously in March. The downstream trading and pick - up were average. With the expectation of a large increase in imported soybeans in April, the high - priced soybean meal spot prices dropped, dragging down the Dalian soybean meal futures. - It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on Dalian soybean meal under the intertwined long and short factors at home and abroad [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the close at 15:00 on March 31, the monthly CBOT soybean closed at 1031.25 cents per bushel, up 6.25 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.61%. The monthly M2505 soybean meal closed at 2851 yuan per ton, down 81 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 2.76% [12]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Balance Sheet - US Soybeans: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet in March compared to February. The planting area, harvest area, yield, etc. remained unchanged, with only minor changes in seed use and residual amounts [14]. - Global Soybeans: Global soybean production and domestic crushing were increased by 3 million tons to 352.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 3 million tons to 121.41 million tons. In China, crushing was increased by 2 million tons to 105 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 2 million tons to 43.96 million tons. In Argentina, domestic crushing was increased by 1 million tons to 42 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 1 million tons to 24.95 million tons [13][19]. 3.2.2 Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall and temperature in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas are normal [13]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - US Soybean Exports: As of the week ending March 20, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 338,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were 45.7601 million tons, accounting for 92.13% of the export forecast in the March USDA report [29]. - Brazilian Soybean Harvest: As of the week ending March 23, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 76.4%, compared with 66.3% in the same period last year [32]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in March was 15.56 million tons, about 2.01 million tons more than the same period last year. Affected by Sino - US tariffs, the Brazilian soybean premium has temporarily stabilized [37]. 3.2.4 Supply - From January to February, the import of soybeans was 13.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, with a decrease of 650,000 tons to 2.518 million tons [13][41][53]. 3.2.5 Demand - In March, the soybean crushing volume was 5.7605 million tons, a decrease of 785,900 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 2.733 million tons from the same period last year. The trading volume of oil mills in March was 2.0812 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons from the previous month, and the pick - up volume was 2.7017 million tons, a decrease of 186,400 tons from the previous month [13][44][50]. 3.2.6 Inventory - In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 2.518 million tons, a decrease of 650,000 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 749,200 tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions tracking the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the 05 soybean - rapeseed meal spread, and the 05 oil - meal ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [55][56][57].