信用周报：四川：关注产业挖掘的机会-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sichuan is a typical central province, with strong fiscal and economic strength but heavy debt burden and uneven debt distribution. It is the "ceiling" level in the second - tier central provinces. In 2024, its GDP was 64697 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the country, and its general budget revenue was 563.508 billion yuan, ranking seventh. The government - funded income was 376.097 billion yuan, ranking fourth. The government debt balance was 2402.89 billion yuan, and the stock of urban investment interest - bearing debt was 5534.208 billion yuan, ranking third in the country. [3][10] - The debt - resolution progress in Sichuan is in line with expectations. The provincial - level overall planning has strict control over non - standard debts, and many financial institutions have been mobilized. The issuance scale of special bonds is relatively large among non - key provinces. Except for some tail - end prefecture - level cities and some districts and counties in the third - ring area of Chengdu, the risks in other regions are not high. [4][11] - Sichuan offers many opportunities for industrial exploration. The industrial system is relatively complete, covering traditional and emerging strategic industries. There are two ideas for exploring industrial bonds: seeking "urban investment industrialization" opportunities and paying attention to short - term opportunities of well - performing private enterprises, especially listed ones. [5][12] - In the primary credit market this week (March 24 - 30, 2025), the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, and the issuance interest rate generally showed a downward trend, while the issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased, and that of financial bonds also went up. [13][15][18] - In the secondary credit market this week, the yields of major grades and maturities of credit bonds generally declined, credit spreads narrowed, the term spreads of major grades showed a differentiated trend, and the valuation yields of major grades and maturities of urban investment bonds all declined. [20][26][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Sichuan: Focus on Industrial Exploration Opportunities - Economic and Debt Situation: Sichuan is a central province with strong economic strength. In 2024, its GDP ranked fifth, general budget revenue ranked seventh, and government - funded income ranked fourth. However, it is a large bond - issuing province, with a government debt balance of 2402.89 billion yuan and a stock of urban investment interest - bearing debt of 5534.208 billion yuan, ranking third. Debt is mainly concentrated in Chengdu, and Mianyang also has a heavy debt burden. [3][10] - Debt - Resolution Progress: The province has rich financial resources and uses them freely. The control mechanism is mainly provincial - level unified management, but Chengdu is more strictly regulated. Many financial institutions have been mobilized. The issuance scale of special bonds is relatively large. The provincial - level overall planning strictly controls non - standard debts, and non - standard reduction is included in the assessment, but enterprises can use non - standard debts freely outside the rigid requirements. The bond roll - over in other prefecture - level cities is easier, while in Chengdu, it is more strictly compliant. [4][11] - Development and Investment Opportunities: Debt - resolution has little impact on regional construction. Sichuan has many industrial highlights, providing opportunities for industrial exploration. There are two ideas for exploring industrial bonds: "urban investment industrialization" and short - term opportunities of well - performing private enterprises. [5][12] 2. Credit Primary Tracking: Decrease in Issuance Scale and Issuance Interest Rate - Issuance Scale: From March 24 to 30, 2025, the overall issuance scale of the credit bond market was 292.243 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.147 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scale was - 35.812 billion yuan, a decrease of 69.689 billion yuan. The issuance scale of the urban investment sector decreased, while that of the second - tier perpetual bond sector increased. [13] - Issuance Interest Rate: The issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills, 3 - year medium - term notes, and 5 - year medium - term notes decreased, while the issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased, and that of financial bonds also went up. [15][18] 3. Credit Secondary Changes: General Decline in Yields and Narrowing of Credit Spreads - Yield Changes: From March 24 to 30, 2025, the yields of major grades and maturities of credit bonds and urban investment bonds all declined, and they are at relatively low historical levels. [20][37] - Credit Spread Changes: The credit spreads of major grades and maturities of credit bonds narrowed, and they are at different historical quantiles. [26] - Term Spread Changes: The term spreads of major grades showed a differentiated trend, and the duration strategy still has no cost - effectiveness. [30]