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开工高位回升,震荡运行
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-03-31 14:21
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the production start - up shows a high - level increase. The domestic soda ash production start - up is expected to recover this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass increasing. Against the background of a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has decreased from a high level, but it is difficult to achieve continuous inventory reduction. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1410 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with lukewarm trading. The weekly soda ash output was 690,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,900 tons or 5.81%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.52%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.63 million tons, a decrease of 57,800 tons. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises showed a downward trend, remaining at more than 8 days, a decrease of more than 2 days [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of March 27, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.52%. The theoretical profit of the Chinese dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was 211.60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 52.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of March 27, the daily melting volume of national photovoltaic glass was 91,790 tons/day. It is expected that the industry's inventory will continue to decline this week. The national float glass output was 1.1083 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.12 percentage points week - on - week. The output is expected to decrease this week [15]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 27, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 842,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 787,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons [18]. 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of March 28, the long positions of the top 20 members of the soda ash 2505 contract were 549,206, an increase of 35,919, and the short positions were 728,129, an increase of 55,353. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [21]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the production start - up shows a high - level increase. The domestic soda ash production start - up is expected to recover this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass increasing. Against the background of a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has decreased from a high level, but it is difficult to achieve continuous inventory reduction. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1410 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [24].