3月PMI点评：环比与同比信号的差异

Manufacturing Sector - March Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.5, up 0.3 from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery but below market expectations[1] - New orders and new export orders increased by 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, but new export orders remain below the expansion threshold at 49[1] - Key indicators such as backlogs, raw material purchase prices, and employment indices declined, suggesting potential risks in export performance if domestic demand does not strengthen[1] Services Sector - Services PMI rose to 50.3 in March, showing a slight recovery but still below the previous year's peak of 52.4[2] - The business activity expectation index reached 57.5, indicating optimism among service sector enterprises despite some declines in new orders and employment indices[2] - Production services showed resilience, while consumer services continued to decline, reflecting a mixed performance across the sector[2] Construction Sector - Construction PMI increased to 53.4, marking a 0.7 rise from the previous month, supported by improved weather conditions and funding availability[2] - Despite the increase, current construction demand remains low compared to historical averages, with new orders and employment indices showing significant declines[2] - The business activity expectation index for construction reached 55.3, indicating positive sentiment, but the overall performance remains contingent on real estate investment recovery[2] Economic Outlook - The first quarter GDP growth is projected to reach around 5.2%, although the performance is slightly weaker compared to last year[2] - Anticipated global trade contraction due to U.S. tariff measures may further pressure China's export performance in the second quarter[2] - Historical patterns suggest that additional economic policies may be implemented in Q3, potentially leading to a "N-shaped" economic trajectory for the year[2] Risks - The speed of domestic demand recovery remains a key risk factor, with potential implications for overall economic performance if it does not meet expectations[3]