RidersontheCharts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹-2025-03-31

Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of Q4 last year, the after-tax profits of U.S. non-financial corporations reached $2.3 trillion, with retained earnings at $963.78 billion, indicating a strong profit retention[5] - The debt leverage of U.S. non-financial corporations has decreased to 97.1%, the lowest level since Q3 2013[14] - U.S. consumer short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, with a 1-year inflation expectation of 6.2% according to the Conference Board and 4.9% according to the University of Michigan[8] Group 2: Market Trends - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have a leveraged financing balance exceeding 1.9 trillion RMB, indicating a fragile liquidity environment[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is currently at 4.8%, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, suggesting a potential undervaluation of equities[18] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 23.9, below the 16-year average, indicating a shift in relative attractiveness towards equities[30] Group 3: Financial Risks - The uncertainty in the economic outlook may weaken corporate refinancing demand, increasing the motivation for direct debt repayment and deleveraging[5] - The partisan divide in consumer confidence surveys may undermine the reliability of consumer sentiment data, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections[11] - The offshore dollar swap basis is at -4.5 basis points, indicating higher costs for offshore dollar financing, which could impact market liquidity[25]