策略日报：不确定性加剧下的调整-2025-03-31

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds slightly rising and short-term bonds slightly falling. The overall tightening of the funding environment has raised the price center of funds, leading to a correction of previously overestimated interest rate cut expectations. The bond market has stabilized near the six-month line and currently presents allocation value. The technical rebound structure of the bond market remains intact, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [1][13]. - In the stock market, over 3,800 stocks declined amid overall market adjustments. With the upcoming tariff policies and earnings season, the market's overall adjustment is not yet over. Low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns. Without significant positive news, trading volume is unlikely to exceed 20 trillion. Investors are advised to reduce positions in technology stocks and focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare stocks [2][17]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB against the USD at 7.2519, down 109 basis points from the previous close. The USD index has shown a bearish trend post-Fed meeting, with expectations of continued short-term rebounds. The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and the RMB may face depreciation pressure in the medium to long term due to trade war pressures [3][21]. Group 2: Important Policies and News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to coordinate the management of overseas listing filings, emphasizing the importance of high-level opening of capital markets to support enterprises in integrating into the global economy [30]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has mandated a comprehensive review and cleanup of enterprise-related fee items to ensure each project has a basis, aiming to enhance transparency and accuracy in fee structures [30]. - The cancellation of housing sales restrictions in Nanjing is expected to meet various housing replacement needs, effective from March 31, 2025 [30].