Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-31 14:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - New home sales have shown a year-on-year decline, but sales in core cities remain strong. The report suggests a structural differentiation in the market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities [4][5]. - The report highlights that the sales data for March 2025 shows a significant drop in sales volume, with a 19% year-on-year decrease, while cumulative sales for the first quarter of 2025 also reflect a 12.8% decline compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the "stop falling and stabilize" policy implemented since September 2024 has been effective, leading to a recovery in sales performance, particularly among high-quality developers in core cities [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March 2025, the top three real estate companies by sales were Poly Developments (29 billion), China Resources (26.1 billion), and Greentown (21.5 billion). The threshold for the top three has decreased from 27 billion in the same month last year to 21.5 billion this year [2][4]. - The cumulative sales for the first three months of 2025 were 556.8 billion, with Poly Developments leading at 63 billion, followed by China Resources at 51.2 billion and China Overseas at 46.4 billion [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant divergence in sales performance among major developers, with some companies like Yuexiu (+59%) and Huafa (+29%) showing substantial year-on-year growth, while others like Longfor (-37%) and Country Garden (-30%) faced significant declines [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the real estate market will continue to exhibit a "structurally strong and weak overall" pattern, with ongoing government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting demand [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality developers in core cities, such as Binhai Group, Jianfa Holdings, and China Resources, while also considering undervalued companies like New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [4][5]. - It also highlights opportunities in property management and second-hand housing intermediaries, suggesting companies like Beike and Huazhu for potential investment [4][5].