镍周报：政策扰动在即，镍价振幅或有加剧-2025-03-31

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Macro aspect: The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented, leading to strong market risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed's policy direction may be more volatile. US economic data in Q4 were generally good, but demand - side performance declined [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore shortage persists, with the price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore rising. Nickel - iron has high cost and demand, with low inventory and a strong price trend. However, downstream stainless - steel has high inventory, and the resilience of demand is questionable. The nickel sulfate market has little change, with a slight price increase. Driven by export profits, domestic pure - nickel production and export scale have reached new highs, and the domestic bearish pattern continues [3]. - Future outlook: Indonesian policy disturbances are coming, and price fluctuations may intensify. The new tax - reform policy may increase the cost of pure nickel by $400 - 600 per ton. Domestically, the bearish fundamental expectation may deepen marginally, as stainless - steel high inventory and low probability of high production in April, along with pessimism in the negative - electrode material factories, suggest weak demand, while supply may remain high due to export profits [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 129,190 yuan/ton on March 21, 2025, to 131,600 yuan/ton on March 28, 2025, an increase of 2,410 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from $16,057/ton to $16,380/ton, an increase of $323/ton. LME inventory decreased by 372 tons to 200,304 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 472 tons to 26,799 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of Russian nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 14,500 tons to 957,000 tons [4]. 2. Market Review - Nickel ore: The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore remained stable, while the domestic price of Indonesian 1.6% laterite nickel ore rose. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and continuous shortage in Indonesia, the price may rise further [5]. - Nickel - iron: The average ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose. In March, Chinese nickel - iron production increased slightly, and Indonesian production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, stainless - steel terminal demand was weak, and inventory pressure was prominent, which may suppress the future price of nickel - iron [6]. - Nickel sulfate: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In March, nickel sulfate production increased, and ternary material production rebounded. The negative - electrode material factories were pessimistic about April's demand, but the concentrated auto shows in April may stimulate potential demand [7]. - Macro: US Q4 GDP grew steadily, but demand - related data were weak. US consumption was weak due to residents' pessimistic expectations. Whether the suppressed consumption potential can be released depends on the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Specific economic data were also provided [7][8]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: In March, domestic production capacity expanded, and the operating rate decreased, but production reached a new high. The expected refined - nickel production in March was 32,160 tons, and the export profit was $218.35/ton [9]. - Consumption: In the new - energy field, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly in March, and the new - for - old policy had a significant driving effect. In the traditional field, the sales volume and area of commercial housing increased slightly, and the central bank released signals of interest - rate and reserve - ratio cuts [10]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of pure nickel increased, while the SHFE and LME inventories decreased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges decreased by 844 tons [11]. 3. Industry News - MBMA will build an HPAL factory in Indonesia with an annual capacity of 90,000 tons of nickel in the form of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) [13]. - Qingyan Environment plans to bid for 51% of the equity of Fujian Tonghai Nickel Industry [13]. - LME was fined £920,000 (about $1.19 million) for its inadequate response to the 2022 nickel market squeeze [13]. - The MHP project in Morowali Park was affected by floods in Indonesia, with production reduced for about a week, and the affected volume is yet to be confirmed [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17].