3月PMI，五个信号

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, matching expectations and slightly up from 50.2% in the previous month[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.8%, an increase from 50.4% previously[1] - Overall, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors show signs of demand recovery, with new orders in manufacturing up by 0.2 percentage points (pct) and supplier delivery times improving by 0.1 pct[1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Comparisons - Compared to the first quarter of last year, manufacturing shows stronger performance with production and new orders at 4.9% and 2.1% respectively, up from 3.3% and 1.0% last year[2] - Non-manufacturing production and new orders are at 1.4% and -10.9%, significantly lower than last year's 5.1% and -8.2%[2] - The average composite PMI for Q1 is 50.9%, below last year's 51.5% and Q4's 51.3%[2] Group 3: New Momentum and Employment - The EPMI for March is 59.6%, rebounding by 10.6 pct, indicating strong new momentum in manufacturing[3] - Employment in manufacturing and services has slightly declined, with manufacturing at 48.2% and services at 46.5%[5] - The construction sector saw a significant drop in employment to 41.4%, indicating potential challenges in job creation[5] Group 4: Export Orders and Price Trends - New export orders in manufacturing increased by 0.4 pct to 49.0%, but remain below last year's 51.3%[4] - Price indices across manufacturing, construction, and services have declined, indicating weak pricing power, with service prices at a low of 46.6%[4] - The government has set a 2% inflation target for the year, but current price trends suggest a gap to this target[4] Group 5: Market Implications - The report suggests that there is no immediate concern regarding export risks, as new export orders continue to recover[7] - The bond market's focus will be on liquidity conditions in April and the impact of U.S. tariffs on market sentiment[7] - There is a likelihood of monetary easing in April-May, with a potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts, but interest rate cuts may depend on external uncertainties[7]