美元走强，软商品短期震荡观望

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, but weather changes still need attention. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, widening the supply - demand gap [2] - For cotton, domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the textile industry's market outlook is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Sugar - Production and Sales: As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, up 1.77 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sales were 4.75 million tons, up 0.97 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than last year [2] - Weather Impact: In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth, but subsequent weather changes need to be monitored [2] - International Market: Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, leading to a wider international supply - demand gap [2] - Price and Spread: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.10%, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and the price in Kunming remained unchanged. Some sugar spreads and basis showed significant changes, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 11.57% and the sugar 01 basis increasing by 19.63% [4] - Import and Profit: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [4] - Options and Warehouse Receipts: The implied volatility of some sugar options was provided, and the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025 [4] Cotton - Domestic Market: Domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating [2] - International Market: The cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [2] - Sowing Outlook: The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] - Price and Spread: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US cotton decreased by 0.03%, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged. Some cotton spreads and basis showed changes, such as CF01 - 05 decreasing by 7.14% and the cotton 01 basis increasing by 7.67% [4] - Import and Warehouse Receipts: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.27% [4] - Options: The implied volatility of some cotton options was provided [4]