宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-2025-04-01

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In Q1, PX entered a inventory accumulation cycle due to stable operation of domestic PX plants, relatively stable imports, and frequent planned and unplanned maintenance of PTA plants. In Q2, Asian PX plants will have a concentrated maintenance period, with supply expected to decline significantly and shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. PX prices will recover, depending on the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - PTA prices declined due to weak crude oil, increased production cuts by downstream polyester plants, and a lack of market confidence. Although some previously maintained plants will resume production, the operating load may still decline. PTA may continue to deplete inventory from April to May, which will support prices [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market declined, with supply - side price cuts following weak PTA and futures, and cautious downstream purchasing. The cost - pricing logic will continue in the short term [2]. - After overnight crude oil prices rose, it is expected that PX will run strongly, PTA will run strongly, and PR will run oscillating [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Price Information - Upstream: On March 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $71.48/barrel, up 3.06% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $74.74/barrel, up 1.51%. On March 28, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $646/ton, up 0.43% [1]. - PX: On March 31, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,858 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; settlement price was 6,860 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. On March 28, the domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,823 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [1]. - PTA: On March 31, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,842 yuan/ton, down 1.06%; settlement price was 4,854 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,896 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [1]. - PR: On March 31, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,026 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 6,032 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. In the East China market, the market price of polyester bottle - chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [1]. - Downstream Products: On March 31, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,740 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips was 6,030 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [2]. Operating Conditions - On March 31, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 76.42%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 80.87%, unchanged; polyester plants was 87.92%, down 0.11%; bottle - chip plants was 71.04%, down 0.47%; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.21%, unchanged [1]. - On March 31, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 54.00%, up 11.00%; polyester staple fiber was 70.00%, down 44.00%; polyester chips was 43.00%, down 8.00% [1]. Device Information - A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China, originally planned for maintenance and technological transformation on April 5, has postponed the plan to late April, and the specific situation is to be determined [2]. - A 1.5 - million - ton PX plant in Huizhou is about to enter the shutdown and maintenance process [2].