宝城期货资讯早班车-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in the second quarter is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - The situation is becoming more favorable for the bond market, which is expected to strengthen with fluctuations. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.7%, and may decline further if the expectation of interest - rate cuts strengthens [25] - After the "tariff storm" settles in early April, A - shares are expected to rebound, Hong Kong stocks to consolidate, and U.S. stocks to recover [28] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q4 2024, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter [1] - In March 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [1][2][14] - In February 2025, social financing scale increment was 70546 billion yuan, M0 year - on - year growth was 9.7%, M1 was 0.1%, and M2 was 7.0% [1] - In February 2025, CPI year - on - year was - 0.7%, PPI was - 2.2%, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.1%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.0% [1] - In February 2025, export value year - on - year was - 3.0%, and import value year - on - year was 1.5% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in Q2 is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures after the Qingming Festival [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and glass futures from April 2 [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted intraday flat - today trading fees for tin futures contracts from April 1 night session [3] - Four insurance institutions have started gold trading, aiming for long - term and stable asset appreciation [3] - On March 31, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 23 had negative basis [3] - Trump may impose a 20% special tariff on all imports, causing the Asia - Pacific stock markets to slump [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, expecting three Fed rate cuts this year [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On March 31, spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs [5] - On March 31, domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 74000 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - month low [5] - As of March 31, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.15% to 933.38 tons [5] - As of March 28, zinc, aluminum, copper inventories hit new lows, while lead inventory increased, and nickel inventory decreased [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In March, China's steel industry PMI was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, but still in the contraction range. April's steel market demand is expected to pick up [6] - In March, the black - commodity sector declined, with coking coal futures hitting a new low since 2017 [6][7] - The U.S. proposed a new mineral agreement with Ukraine, and Trump warned Zelensky if Ukraine withdraws [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices continued to rise due to concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies [8] - Saudi Aramco kept its April LPG official selling prices stable, while Sonatrach lowered its prices by 2 - 7% [8] - In January 2025, U.S. crude oil production dropped to the lowest since February 2024, and oil product supply reached the highest since October 2024 [8] - U.S. LNG production, gasoline demand, and some export volumes decreased in January 2025, while crude oil export volume increased [9] - U.S. natural gas production in some regions decreased in January 2025, and total oil demand increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9][10] - Tokyo Gas will acquire a stake in a Texas shale from Chevron [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean inventory in Q1 was 1.91 billion bushels [12] - U.S. export inspection volumes for soybeans, wheat, and corn were 793250 tons, 435644 tons, and 1614406 tons respectively [12] - Arabica coffee futures prices rose about 18% in the first three months due to concerns about drought in Brazil [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 1667 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.5%, with a net investment of 317 billion yuan [13] - In March, the central bank conducted 8000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1000 billion yuan, and suspended Treasury bond trading for three consecutive months [13] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the Q2 macro - economy is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2][14][15] - China will take measures to reduce corporate burdens [15] - The Ministry of Finance announced the Q2 2025 Treasury bond issuance plan, including a 30 - year Treasury bond and a special Treasury bond for central financial institution capital injection [15] - The plan for issuing special Treasury bonds for state - owned banks' capital injection was released, with a total of 5000 billion yuan in 5 - year and 7 - year terms [16] - In Q1 2025, 1227 corporate bonds were issued on the exchange bond market, with a total issuance of 8705.19 billion yuan [16] - Guangzhou released its 2025 housing development plan, including planned pre - sale areas and land supply [16] - In March, Guangzhou's second - hand housing transactions increased significantly [17] - Nanjing and Gansu introduced real - estate and housing - provident - fund policies respectively [18] - From January to March, TOP100 real - estate developers' sales decreased year - on - year, but core cities' transactions are expected to recover [18] - The Bank of Japan will reduce its purchase of 10 - 25 - year Treasury bonds in Q2 [18] - Some companies had bond - related events, such as Shanghai Shimao's debt default and several bonds' full redemptions [19] - Moody's adjusted ratings for some companies and commented on the impact of U.S. tariffs on some countries [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market - At the end of the quarter, tight funds pressured short - term bonds, while long - term bonds performed relatively well [20] - Convertible bond indexes declined, with some bonds rising and others falling [20][21] - Most real - estate bonds on the exchange market declined, and some bond indexes showed different trends [21] - Money - market interest rates mostly rose, and Shibor short - end rates showed mixed trends [21][22] - Bank - to - bank and other repurchase rates had different changes, and some agricultural - development bank bonds were issued [22] - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [24] - The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes the market is in a wait - and - see period, and a defensive strategy should be adopted for convertible bonds [25] - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes the bond market will strengthen with fluctuations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may decline [25] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 1, 109 bonds were listed, 61 were issued, 55 were due for payment, and 186 had principal and interest payments [26][27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares closed down, with the chemical, photovoltaic, and robot sectors leading the decline, while gold and bank stocks rose [28] - On Monday, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, but south - bound funds had net purchases [28] - The news of shortening A - share trading hours by 30 minutes is false [28] - The CSRC emphasized providing a better regulatory environment for overseas - listed enterprises [28] - As of the end of March, 120 A + H listed companies proposed dividend plans, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in dividends for 2024 [29] - Ping An Life increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China H - shares [30] - Xiaomi completed a share placement, raising about 42.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [30] - Chen Hang will return to DingTalk as CEO [30]