国泰君安期货所长早读-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump may announce tariff details on the evening of April 1st or April 2nd, and Morgan Stanley suggests focusing on whether the announcement can clarify tariff policies and whether the tariff increase is large enough to further deteriorate the economic outlook. "April 2nd" is not the "end of bad news" for US stocks [7]. - For US soybeans, the planting area is in line with expectations but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. In the medium - short term, the supply pressure is high, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, there is strong support. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US main producing areas and Trump's tariff policies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals - Gold: Reached a new high. Media reported that the White House is considering "comprehensive high tariffs" again, and Citi said it is a "once - in - 40 - year" opportunity for gold mines [15][17]. - Silver: Fell due to the influence of non - ferrous metals [15]. - Copper: Due to the expectation of US tariff hikes, the market is cautious. Trump will announce tariff details on April 2nd, and there are also some micro - level events such as changes in China's copper imports and problems at a Chilean smelter [20][22]. - Aluminum: In a wide - range shock. The electrolytic aluminum and alumina markets have various data changes, and there are also news about a Vietnamese electrolytic aluminum project and the extraction of Russian aluminum from LME - certified warehouses [23][26]. - Zinc: Operating under pressure. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5, with the fastest manufacturing expansion speed in a year [27][28]. - Lead: There may be pressure above. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5 [30]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supports the cost of the pyrometallurgical process, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Indonesian nickel iron project is gradually resuming production, and there are also policy adjustment signals for nickel resources [32][34]. - Stainless steel: In the short - term, the cost logic dominates, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term [33]. - Tin: Stabilized and rebounded [37]. - Industrial silicon: The disk is still in a weak pattern. The market has various data changes such as price, inventory, and profit [41]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today [41]. - Carbonate lithium: The proportion of second - registration without inspection is relatively high, and the disk may be under pressure. There are also news about lithium resource imports and the development of solid - state battery materials [44][47]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - Iron ore: Weakly oscillating. China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5% [49]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly. There are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [50][52]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly. Similar to rebar, there are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [51][52]. - Silicon iron: Weakly oscillating due to the weakening of raw material prices [12]. - Manganese silicon: In a wide - range shock as the main producing areas are gradually reducing production [12][56]. - Coke: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][59]. - Coking coal: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][60]. - Steam coal: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure [64]. 3.3 Chemicals and Others - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures market has price and trading volume changes, and the spot market has a general trading atmosphere [68]. - Para - xylene: Supported by cost, with the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou, a strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - PTA: With the reduction of short - fiber and filament FDY production, a strategy of going long on PF and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - MEG: In a range - bound market, attention should be paid to the pressure at 4600 [71]. - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [12]. - Synthetic rubber: Narrowly oscillating in the short - term [12]. - Asphalt: Following the rise of crude oil, with a steady reduction in factory inventory [12]. - LLDPE: Oscillating in the short - term, and there is still pressure in the later period [12]. - PP: The price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average [12]. - Caustic soda: Mainly oscillating weakly, attention should be paid to export demand [12]. - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [12]. - Log: Weakly oscillating [12]. - Methanol: Oscillating under pressure [12]. - Urea: Oscillating, and the intraday trend depends on spot trading [12]. - Styrene: Close short positions [12]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market [12]. - LPG: Following the rise of crude oil, but the 04 contract is still weak [14]. - PVC: Oscillating at a low level [14]. - Fuel oil: Rose at night, and may turn significantly stronger in the short - term [14]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Rebounded following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [14]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The report is neutral, there are still concerns about tariffs, and the US soybeans closed down, so the Dalian soybean meal may follow the decline [14][66]. - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating with the surrounding market and adjusting and oscillating [14][66]. - Corn: Oscillating [14][68]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the internal - external price difference [14][69]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - events [14][70]. - Egg: The weakness of the spot market exceeded expectations [14][72]. - Live pig: The expectation of secondary inventory accumulation is gradually forming [14][73]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the supply [14][74]. 3.5 Crude Oil - Trump is using sanctions and tariff threats to potentially hit the oil revenues of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The secondary tariff threats may have a large impact, and the US unilateral policy may subvert the G7 price - cap policy. On March 31st, crude oil futures closed higher [73][74].