安粮期货生猪日报-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2505 contract is likely to operate within a box - shaped range [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate within a range [2] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price performance at the support level of 2,250 yuan/ton [3] - The copper price has tested 80,000 as expected, and the next step is to pay attention to the test around 79,000 [4] - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The steel market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel will oscillate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will weakly oscillate and rebound at a low level, with limited space [8] - Iron ore 2505 will fluctuate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - Recently, the crude oil price should focus on market games, and the WTI main contract will rebound based on the 65 - dollar/barrel position [10] - For rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work. It will mainly oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low of the main contract [12] - In the short - term, the PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to the lack of fundamental positive drivers [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [14] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (-30), Rizhao 3,100 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 3,000 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: the average price of key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,085 yuan/ton; the average price of key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region is 2,286 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,150 - 2,155 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Bayuquan is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,860 - 80,030 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan, with a flat - to - 30 - yuan premium, and the imported copper ore index is - 24.14, down 1.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,150 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,850 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan/ton, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the rebar steel mill inventory is 225,780 tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [8] - The iron ore Platts index is 103.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 780 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 783 yuan/ton [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - slice 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber 16,350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, glue 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup rubber 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11][12] - The mainstream spot price of East China type 5 PVC is 4,890 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 260 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1,504.06 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,550 yuan/ton, 1,600 yuan/ton, and 1,525 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [14] Market Analysis Soybean Oil - Internationally, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and the new season in South America may be in a high - yield pattern. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may remain stable [1] Soybean Meal - Macroeconomically, Sino - US tariff policies have caused market panic. Internationally, it is in the South American harvest window, and attention should be paid to the weather. Sino - US trade tariffs suppress US soybean export demand. Domestically, due to soybean arrival delays and shutdowns for maintenance, short - term supply may be tight, but it will become loose after the concentrated listing of South American soybeans. Terminal demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis, while the oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased significantly [2] Corn - Externally, the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report and quarterly inventory data are about to be released, and the April 2 US comprehensive tariff event is uncertain. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, faster than last year, and imports of corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly, reducing the market supply pressure. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and feed consumption is expected to increase, but there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy - related grain rotation and wheat substitution [3] Copper - Globally, there are differences between the US and non - US regions under uncertain situations and tariff expectations, and the Fed's continuous maintenance of the status quo reflects this. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is beneficial to market sentiment. In the industry, raw material shocks are still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] Lithium Carbonate - In terms of cost, lithium ore prices have loosened. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate has been increasing, approaching the historical average, and the supply is increasing but at a slower pace. In terms of demand, terminal consumption improved in March, but it is still insufficient to drive the price upward. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has been accumulating [5][6] Steel - The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month ones. The contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent steel demand has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have oscillated strongly this week, and the cost center has increased. Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, but the overall inventory level is low [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and coking plant capacity utilization running smoothly. Although there are disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall level remains high. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and the expected decline in hot metal production still existing. Independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly accumulating. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and approaching the break - even point [8] Iron Ore - Supply is increasing, with the first - quarter shipments of Australia's three major mines increasing by 8% year - on - year and the new mining area of Brazil's Vale being put into production ahead of schedule, and global port inventories reaching a new high since 2023. Demand is weak, with the slowdown of Chinese steel mill复产, low funds in downstream real estate and infrastructure projects, low daily hot metal production, cautious restocking by steel mills, and a decline in port throughput. Overseas demand is divided. The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new policy has raised concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand, but the Fed's interest - rate cut signal has supported commodity prices [9] Crude Oil - The conflict between the US and the Houthi armed forces has increased uncertainty in the Middle East, and crude oil has rebounded strongly recently. OPEC+ has issued a new production - cut policy, and the production - cut volume is greater than the planned increase in April. The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations are disturbing the market, and WTI crude oil has support around 65 dollars/barrel. The US trade war has started, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be coming to an end, with Russian production capacity expected to recover. In the second quarter, demand will gradually recover, but the growth rate is average due to the trade war [10] Rubber - Domestic whole latex is gradually starting to be harvested, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping harvesting, leading to an increase in raw material prices. The downstream tire start - up rate has recovered well after the holiday. Currently, the global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the US auto tariff policy may suppress demand [12] PVC - Supply: The start - up rate of PVC production enterprises decreased slightly last week. Demand: Domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and transactions are mainly for rigid demand. Inventory: As of March 27, PVC social inventory decreased, and the current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, with high inventory and weak downstream demand [13] Soda Ash - Supply: The overall start - up rate of soda ash increased last week, and production increased. Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory decreased significantly, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand: The performance is average, with downstream enterprises replenishing inventory for low - price goods on a rigid basis and resisting high - price goods [14]