市场理性的回归：供需双弱下的新平衡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for palm oil is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is currently in a stage of seeking a new balance under the condition of weak supply and demand. The high premium of palm oil is due to factors such as low inventory at the origin, potential demand from Indonesia's B40, India's strong purchases, and adverse weather in Southeast Asia. However, the market will eventually return to rationality. As the demand from Indonesia and India collapses, the current tight balance of palm oil may turn into a short - term supply surplus after the supply recovers. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025Q1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, palm oil prices showed a trend of decline - rise - decline - oscillation. At the beginning of the year, prices continued the decline from December 2024 due to the postponement of Indonesia's B40. Then, due to extreme rainfall at the origin, price rebounds occurred. After the Spring Festival, prices rose significantly but then fell due to India's order cancellations and concerns about Indonesia's B40 implementation. In early March, prices rebounded again but then oscillated within a range [13][14] 3.2 Gradually Returning to a Rational Market: Re - balancing under Weak Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Malaysia: Low Inventory Supports Prices, and a Supply Inflection Point is Approaching - Currently, Malaysian palm oil faces a situation of low production and low inventory. Production has been decreasing since September 2024, mainly affected by drought and heavy rainfall. As of February 2025, the ending inventory was only 151 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40 million tons. The origin has a strong willingness to hold prices. However, production is expected to recover in March, with an estimated increase of 5% - 9% to reach 1.25 - 1.3 million tons. In the second quarter, production will enter a relatively smooth growth season. Exports have been declining, and it is estimated that exports in March will remain at around 1 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in April and return to normal levels in May. Domestic demand is limited, and inventory accumulation may occur from May to June [19][24][34] 3.2.2 Indonesia: Implementing B40 Faces Many Difficulties - Indonesia's production is expected to recover better than Malaysia's, but the actual production in the first quarter was not optimistic due to heavy rainfall. The implementation of B40 is a key variable. In 2025, the biodiesel subsidy policy changed, and the non - PSO sector may face difficulties in achieving the B40 blending ratio. Currently, the biodiesel process is not going well. If B40 is not implemented, Indonesia will have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [43][50][54] 3.2.3 India: Low Import Willingness but Still in Need of Replenishing Stocks - India is the largest palm oil importer. Since the end of the Diwali stocking last year, India's palm oil imports have declined significantly due to the high premium of palm oil compared to soybean oil. As of February, the total inventory of vegetable oils in India was at a three - year low. With the warming weather and low inventory, India has a strong need to replenish stocks, and palm oil will be the main product for replenishment [58][65] 3.2.4 China: Near - term Contradictions Remain, and Long - term Supply Will Improve - The domestic palm oil market has been in a situation of weak supply and demand since the fourth quarter of last year, with low inventory. Currently, due to the strong price - holding intention at the origin, the import profit is inverted, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. In April, the inventory is expected to decline further, but it is expected to increase from May, and the inventory inflection point will appear in May [69][74] 3.3 Market Judgment and Suggestions - In the second quarter, the origin's quotes are expected to first decline and then continue to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. The price range for the 05 contract is estimated to be between 8,200 yuan and 9,500 yuan, and for the 09 contract, it is between 7,900 yuan and 8,800 yuan. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82]