中辉期货豆粕日报-2025-04-01

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The rapeseed meal market will follow the trend of soybean meal. The palm oil market will have short - term high - level oscillations. The cotton market will stop falling and consolidate. The jujube market will operate weakly. The pig market will have weak oscillations [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract closed at 2851 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The national average spot price was 3163.43 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The average national soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of different contracts also changed [2]. - Influencing Factors: Brazilian soybean production is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended. The announced US soybean planting area decreased, but the ending inventory was higher than expected. The US will impose a 10% tariff on China in April, and China will impose a 10% tariff on US soybeans. In April, domestic soybean imports will increase, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons from April to June [1][3]. - Outlook: It will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. Near - month contracts need to pay attention to the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased this week, and the pressure marginally improved [1][5]. - Influencing Factors: The US imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, which was negative for Canadian rapeseed prices. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but rapeseed was not included, and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal, so the actual positive impact is limited [1][5]. - Outlook: It will follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term due to the lack of new fundamental guidance [1][5]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 9104 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The national average price was 9605 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment showed changes in the proportion of bullish, bearish, and neutral views [6]. - Influencing Factors: The Ramadan festival in March led to a decline in international import demand. Southeast Asian palm oil production began to recover in March. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff will be 124 US dollars/ton. The US plans to increase the biodiesel blending volume in 2026 and later, with the minimum increase exceeding 40% compared to 2025 [1][6][7]. - Outlook: It will have short - term high - level oscillations. The price is expected to change from strong to weak, and the current price increase is regarded as a rebound under event influence [1][6][7]. Cotton - Market Situation: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2505 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The domestic spot price increased slightly. The international and domestic cotton inventories,开机 rates, and other indicators showed certain changes [8]. - Influencing Factors: The USDA slightly lowered the US cotton planting intention, which provided limited support. Domestically, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, with slow - growing orders, low开机 rates, and negative corporate profits. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [9][10][11]. - Outlook: It will stop falling and consolidate in the short term, with the market waiting for macro data. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to relevant industrial policies [11]. Jujube - Market Situation: The main jujube contract CJ2505 closed at 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [12][13]. - Influencing Factors: The downstream market entered the off - season, with more arrivals in the sales area. Seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, squeezing the jujube market [13][14]. - Outlook: It will operate weakly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the new production season [14]. Pig - Market Situation: The main pig contract Lh2505 closed at 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The domestic pig spot price increased slightly. The inventory,出栏 volume,开工 rate, and profit indicators showed certain changes [15][16]. - Influencing Factors: The supply pressure in the pig market continued to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The demand was still weak, and the second - fattening enthusiasm decreased [16][17]. - Outlook: It will have weak oscillations. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure, and attention should be paid to the data of piglets for potential arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [17].