市场在震荡中寻找方向

Report Summary 1. Core View - In April, the market will face the dual tests of "policy verification" and "overseas risks". The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and the direction choice needs to wait for the key signals to land. The market showed a volatile characteristic of "two steps forward and one step back" in March due to the tug - of - war between economic recovery and overseas disturbances. Investors should closely track macro - economic data, Fed policy trends, and domestic industrial policy implementation effects in April [21][22] 2. Key Points by Section (1) Market Quotes Review - Last week, IC2504 closed at 5819.6 points, up 19.8 points or 0.34% from the previous month. IM2504 closed at 6184.0 points, up 4.4 points or 0.07% from the previous month [3] (2) Economic Data - In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing an accelerated expansion pace. The composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall accelerated expansion of corporate production and business activities [6][8][9] (3) Valuation Analysis - As of March 2, the PE of the CSI 500 index was 28.4 times, with a percentile of 63.41%, and the PB was 1.85 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 index was 37.89 times, with a percentile of 46.97%, and the PB was 2.11 times [13] (4) Other Data - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20] (5) Overseas Environment - The implementation of US tariff policies and rising debt pressure are intensifying the volatility of US stocks. In March, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) soared to 35, and the panic sentiment has spread to the Hong Kong stock market and the A - share technology sector. If the scope and intensity of tariffs in April exceed expectations, the risk of market correction may increase; otherwise, risk appetite may recover [21] (6) Capital and Sentiment - In March, the margin trading balance first rose and then fell to over 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating that leveraged funds are becoming more cautious and the motivation for incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient. As the earnings season approaches, performance differentiation may further intensify stock price fluctuations, and the stock index futures market will rely more on macro - data and policy expectations [22]