中辉期货热卷早报-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil) are expected to run weakly in the medium term. Rebar production continues to rise, and demand remains weak. Hot-rolled coil may face challenges in exports, and its fundamentals tend to be looser [1][4][5]. - Iron ore's fundamentals have improved, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 positive spread and short the 09 contract on rallies [1][8][9]. - Coke is expected to run weakly in the medium term due to long - standing over - capacity issues and unresolved coking coal supply contradictions [1][11][12]. - Coking coal is expected to run weakly as supply pressure persists, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [1][14][15]. - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) are expected to run weakly. Ferromanganese has high production and limited demand growth, while ferrosilicon may face increased export competition [1][18][19]. 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products Rebar - Core View: Weak operation. Production is rising, demand is weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand may intensify. The medium - term price range is [3100, 3180] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices for rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3271 (-10), 3159 (-38), and 3247 (-10) respectively. Spot prices vary in different regions, such as 3280 in Tangshan (unchanged), 3210 in Shanghai (-20) [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Core View: Weak operation. The current fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but exports may be affected, and the fundamentals tend to be looser. The medium - term price range is [3300, 3380] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices for hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3408 (-14), 3342 (-32), and 3379 (-25) respectively. Spot prices also vary by region, e.g., 3300 in Tianjin (-10), 3350 in Shanghai (-20) [2]. Iron Ore - Core View: Positive spread participation. The fundamentals have improved in the short term, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 positive spread and short the 09 contract on rallies. The price range is [750, 810] [1][8][9]. - Price Data: Futures prices for iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 712 (-13), 773 (-13), and 732 (-15) respectively. Spot prices of different iron ore powders also have corresponding changes [6]. Coke - Core View: Weak operation in the medium term. Although the supply - demand data shows little contradiction, there are long - standing over - capacity issues and unresolved coking coal supply contradictions [1][11][12]. - Price Data: Futures prices for coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1687.0 (-17.5), 1582.5 (-35.0), and 1640.0 (-21.0) respectively. Spot prices in different regions remain unchanged [10]. Coking Coal - Core View: Weak operation. Supply pressure persists, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [1][14][15]. - Price Data: Futures prices for coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1115.5 (-24.5), 988.5 (-35.5), and 1059.0 (-21.5) respectively. Spot prices in some regions are stable, while others have small changes [13]. Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - Core View: Weak operation. Production remains high, demand growth is limited, and the supply pressure is still high. The price range is [6000, 6350] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices for ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 are 6204 (-12), 6070 (-6), and 6144 (2) respectively. Spot prices vary in different regions [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core View: Weak operation. Some regions have increased production cuts and maintenance, and export competition may intensify. The price range is [5900, 6100] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices for ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6100 (-6), 5972 (-44), and 6006 (-26) respectively. Spot prices in different regions also have corresponding changes [17].