美凯龙（601828）：业绩承压，看好国补催化带动出租率提振

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net loss for 2024, primarily due to slow recovery in post-real estate consumption and a temporary drop in rental income [2][3] - The company is leveraging government subsidies to boost sales and improve occupancy rates in its malls, with a notable increase in "trade-in" orders and sales during Q4 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end home appliance and home decoration ecosystems to enhance its market position and operational quality [5][6] Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.82 billion, a year-on-year decline of 32.08%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.98 billion [2][9] - The company's self-operated malls generated revenue of 5.36 billion, down 21.0% year-on-year, with average occupancy rates of 83.0% and 82.5% for self-operated and managed malls, respectively [3] Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 58.26%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -40.79%, a decline of 20.20 percentage points [4] - The company’s operating expenses increased significantly, with a total expense ratio of 58.24% for 2024, up 11.64 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 8.20 billion, 8.50 billion, and 8.78 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.02, 0.09, and 0.16 [7][9] - The company maintains a comprehensive online and offline layout, covering home furnishings, home decoration, and high-end appliances, which is expected to enhance its growth potential [7]