2025年二季度信用债市场展望：把握中短久期信用下沉的确定性

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market in Q2 2025 may experience a supply-demand mismatch, with opportunities in credit bonds being more certain than in interest rate bonds [3][5] - On the supply side, the net supply of credit bonds is expected to decline in Q2, with significant room for exploration in existing credit bonds, particularly those with yields above 2.3% [3][4] - On the demand side, non-bank institutions have shown limited interest in credit bonds this year, but their allocation may increase in Q2, particularly from wealth management products and public funds [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the funding environment is a crucial factor influencing credit strategy selection, with a preference for short-duration credit bonds during periods of tight or stable funding [3][4] - Historical examples show that during tight funding periods, short-duration sinking strategies outperform, while in periods of declining funding rates, high-grade long-duration strategies may be favored [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging funding conditions to enhance returns through short-duration credit bonds, particularly in the context of ongoing debt replacement and land reserve special bonds [4][5] Group 3 - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in the issuance of traditional credit bonds, with net financing showing signs of recovery [13][9] - The report notes that the issuance of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds both experienced a slight decline, but net financing for urban investment bonds improved [13][20] - The overall market adjustment in Q1 was characterized by rising credit bond yields and a flattening yield curve, with credit spreads narrowing passively [21][29]