华金期货国债期货市场周报-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is below the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Weekly Macro and News: In March this year, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of open - market outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity. Trump is expected to announce trade tariff policies later this week. Panic in the first quarter led global investors to reduce portfolio risks and turn to safe - haven assets, pushing up US Treasury bond prices and gold prices to a record high [4] - Treasury Bond Market Outlook: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - Price Trends: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The weekly closing prices of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 increased by 0.09%, 0.25%, 0.43%, and 0.79% respectively. The trading volume/holding volume ratios were 1.77, 1.73, 2.06, and 5.60 respectively [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - Yield Changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased slightly, and the yield spread remained stable [9] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Arbitrage Opportunities for Treasury Bond CTD Bonds: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - TF - T Spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [13] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury Bond Term Structure: The Treasury bond term structure was steeper than last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 24 [21]