广金期货策略早餐-2025-04-01

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Pig Futures: The short - term view is stable but weak, and there is significant supply pressure from March to April. The trading logic is to sell on rebounds. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in accumulative sales option products [1][3]. - Sugar Futures: The short - term view is stable but strong, and the medium - term view is first rising then falling. It is recommended to continue holding the 9890 call option [4]. - Crude Oil Futures: The short - term view is that the bottom is rising, and the medium - term view is under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on SC2506 [5][7]. - PVC Futures: The short - term view is range - bound between 5050 and 5250, and the medium - term view is that the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to participate in the PVC 5 - 9 reverse spread when the price increase narrows [8]. Group 2: Summary by Variety Pig - Supply: As of February 2025, the national inventory of fertile sows was 4.066 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. The supply of pigs calculated based on production capacity data is still sufficient [1]. - Restocking: Since mid - March, farmers' restocking enthusiasm has increased, and the price of piglets has reached a new high for the year. The supply of pigs in the second half of the year may be more abundant [2]. - Comprehensive Situation: From March to April, there is significant supply pressure, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The futures market is in a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom - support on the downside [3]. Sugar - Negative Factors: The news of India's sugar production reduction in the 24/25 season has been digested. Brazil's improved weather, currency depreciation, and speculative funds' profit - taking have put pressure on the raw sugar price [4]. - Positive Factors: Brazil's low inventory restricts its export space, and India's sugar production reduction and ethanol diversion have intensified inventory shortages. There may be a short - term shortage in the trade flow during the transition period between the old and new seasons [4]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + announced a monthly compensatory production cut plan from March this year to June next year, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have affected supply. The production of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to decline from April [5]. - Demand: In March, the domestic gasoline and diesel market was weak, and the demand for refined oil was affected by refinery maintenance. The operating rate of US refineries has not returned to normal [5]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased after three consecutive weeks of accumulation. The WTI and Brent are in a Back structure, and the spread in the near - end market is expected to widen slightly [6][7]. - Comprehensive Situation: In the short term, oil prices are expected to gradually rise from the bottom. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price center will move down [7]. PVC - Cost: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest region has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased. As of March 28, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [8]. - Supply: Some PVC plants were under maintenance last week, and there are no planned maintenance enterprises next week. The industry will enter a concentrated maintenance period from April to May, and supply will decline seasonally [8]. - Demand: The pre - sales orders of PVC production enterprises have improved, the export has increased slightly, but the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has increased slowly [8]. - Inventory: PVC inventories have decreased for six consecutive weeks. As of March 28, the domestic social inventory of PVC was 469,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [9]. - Comprehensive Situation: After entering the maintenance season in April, the supply pressure may ease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of prices is insufficient [9].