Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]

Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - A-shares and commodities continue to rise. In the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - The dollar exchange rate rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, the dollar's weakness is difficult to reverse, and gold oscillates and accumulates momentum [6]. - The economic data released this week shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is better than expected, but the consumption growth rate in June declines, and investment has not yet exerted force [6]. - Non-ferrous metals are differentiated this week, with most experiencing corrections but overall remaining in a high-level oscillation [6]. - Black metals oscillate at a high level this week, but the rebound is not over [6]. - Nickel prices and stainless steel oscillate at a low level this week, and the market is still digesting inventory [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum operates at a high level, with the supply side providing strong support for prices [7]. - Alumina oscillates strongly in the short term and operates at a low level in the medium term [8]. - Aluminum alloy operates strongly in the short term and fluctuates within a range in the medium term [9]. - Finished steel prices oscillate strongly, and prices are expected to be strong from July to August [10]. Summaries by Category Macro Strategy - **Intraday View**: A-shares and commodities continue to rise; in the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Gold can be observed or a small amount of gold call options can be bought as the bottom position; hold the bought IO2509-C-3950; hold the sold CU2509-P-75000 position; hold RB2510 or HC2510 long positions or call options; reduce the protective put options while the nickel spot inventory decreases [6]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, factors such as the expanding fiscal deficit and debt, tariff shocks, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts make the dollar's weakness difficult to reverse [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High-level operation, with the operating range of 20300 - 20600; in the medium term, high-level operation, with the operating range of 19200 - 21000 [7]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508-P-19300 [7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply-side reform in 2017 set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity was 44.139 million tons, with limited room for capacity increase. The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [7]. Alumina - **Intraday View**: Oscillate strongly, with the operating range of 3050 - 3200; in the medium term, operate at a low level, with the operating range of 2700 - 3500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, 17 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into operation, with obvious supply pressure. The improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to drive an increase in alumina demand [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **Intraday View**: Operate strongly, with the operating range of 19800 - 20000; in the medium term, fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 19000 - 20300 [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [9]. - **Core Logic**: The current inventory is at a high level within the year, and the general rise in non-ferrous metals boosts the price of aluminum alloy [9]. Finished Steel (RB, HC) - **Intraday View**: Prices oscillate strongly; from July to August, prices are expected to be strong [10]. - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the bought in-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3000; continue to hold the sold out-of-the-money put options of rebar RB2510-P-2900; short the out-of-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3300 in the short term [10]. - **Core Logic**: The pressure on the raw material inventory of steel is expected to be marginally relieved after mid-July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and the production cost of steel to stabilize. The current explicit inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is low, and recent positive factors have boosted speculative sentiment [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The intraday view of stock index futures is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For treasury bond futures, both the intraday and medium - term views are bullish [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For aluminum, it is expected to trade at a high level both intraday and in the medium - term. For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, the intraday price is expected to be volatile and strong, and the price is expected to be strong from July to August [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2509 [1]. - **Core Logic**: The marginal slowdown of fundamental repair strengthens policy expectations. The government's strengthened long - cycle assessment of insurance funds is beneficial for the entry of incremental funds. Overseas, the phased settlement of tariff uncertainties has a limited impact on the equity market [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3]. - **Core Logic**: During the tax period, the central bank's injection of medium - term liquidity supports the long - end bond market. The weak domestic fundamentals and low inflation strengthen the expectation of monetary easing. After the release of multiple negative news, the bond market maintains a rebound momentum [3]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials (Aluminum)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [4]. - **Core Logic**: Due to supply - side reforms, the increase in aluminum production capacity is limited. The current social inventory is at a five - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is beneficial for aluminum prices [4]. - **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold long positions in in - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3000, short positions in out - of - the - money put options RB2510 - P - 2900, and short - term short positions in out - of - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3300 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of steel raw materials is expected to ease, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The low inventory of finished steel products and the emergence of multiple positive factors are expected to boost speculative demand [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pork**: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate within a narrow range; in the medium - term, it shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Suggest selling at high prices [1][2]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, it will have a small rebound; in the medium - term, it will rise first and then fall. Suggest selling at high prices [3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it will oscillate upwards; in the medium - term, it will face pressure. Suggest selling out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [5][7]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 4900 - 5100; in the medium - term, the upside space is limited. Suggest shorting after the upward trend ends [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Supply**: There is a theoretical low point in supply from July to August, but long - term supply remains high. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of new piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, and the supply pressure from April to September 2025 will increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the slaughtering start - up rate was 25.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. Terminal consumption is weak [1]. - **Outlook**: There may be a price increase from July to August, but the high point may be lower than last year. In the fourth quarter, the price may fall, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [2]. Sugar - **International**: Overseas macro factors cause disturbances. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 420 million tons [3]. - **Domestic**: The sales progress is fast. The spot price has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar is positive [4]. - **Outlook**: Zhengzhou sugar will follow the small rebound of raw sugar. In the medium - term, the price increase is limited, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production in August by 548,000 barrels per day and may further increase by about 550,000 barrels per day on August 3. The U.S. production growth will slow down in the long - term [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., the refinery start - up rate has approached 95%, and gasoline demand has exceeded 9 million barrels per day. In China, the main refinery start - up rate is at a five - year high, while the local refinery profit is low [6]. - **Inventory**: U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and it will accumulate at the end of the third quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is upward momentum; in the medium - term, it will face pressure [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased [8]. - **Supply**: The industry start - up rate has decreased slightly, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year [8]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is expected to weaken, and export orders are decreasing [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Outlook**: The current price increase is mainly due to improved macro sentiment, but the upward momentum is limited [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term cautious, medium - term positive [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term and medium - term positive [3] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term range 77600 - 79100, medium - term range 60000 - 90000 [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term range 8300 - 8500, medium - term low - level operation in range 7500 - 8800 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term and medium - term positive [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term range 6.30 - 6.50 million, medium - term price decline with range 5.6 - 6.8 million [14] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas tariff uncertainty has a reduced marginal impact; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite is rising, but short - term profit - taking pressure should be noted [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bank - to - bank liquidity is slightly tightened, and there are rumors in the market. The domestic fundamentals are weak, strengthening the policy easing expectation [4] - **Copper**: US tariff hikes, supply increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes may affect price trends [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand decline, high inventory, but polysilicon price increase boosts it [8][9] - **Polysilicon**: Supply decline, demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation drive price increase [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot price increase benefits futures, but high supply and inventory levels are negative factors [14] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: IM2507 trading positions take profit, and allocation positions move to IM2509 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff uncertainty is reduced; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite rises with 596 billion yuan net buying in 3 weeks and 9% financing ratio [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [4] - **Core Logic**: Bank - to - bank liquidity tightens slightly, rumors in the market, and weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy easing expectation [4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach [5] - **Core Logic**: US tariff hikes, Codelco's 9% production increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8] - **Core Logic**: 27.67% supply decline, 33.11% demand decline, high inventory, and polysilicon price increase [8][9] - **Polysilicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [10] - **Core Logic**: 33.11% supply decline, 19.06% demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [14] - **Core Logic**: Spot price increase, 35% supply increase, and high inventory levels [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is expected to remain high both in the short - term and medium - term. The supply capacity has limited room for growth, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is favorable for the aluminum price [1]. - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The price of steel is expected to be strong both in the short - term and from July to August. The supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and the speculative demand for steel will increase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 20,500 - 20,800 [1]. - **Medium - term View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Supply capacity is close to the upper limit set in 2017, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the automotive market is performing well [1]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Intraday View**: Prices are expected to run strongly [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Prices are expected to be strong from July to August [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the bought rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3000, exit the call option selling strategy, and hold the sold rebar RB2510 - P - 2900 [3]. - **Core Logic**: - Supply: The inventory pressure of steel raw materials will ease after mid - July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and the coal and coke prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Demand: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the plate demand is okay, and the speculative demand is expected to increase due to positive factors [4].

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper**: The short - term price range is expected to be between 77,300 and 79,000, and the medium - term range is 60,000 - 90,000. A volatile trading strategy is recommended. Trump's proposed 50% tariff on US copper imports, supply changes in Chile and Indonesia, weak growth in Chinese home air - conditioner exports, and inventory increases are the main influencing factors. The high tariff may negatively impact real demand in the US [1][2]. Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Protein Meal**: In the short term, the fluctuation of soybean meal is smaller than that of soybean oil. The soybean meal 2509 contract is expected to find a bottom in the range of [2,875, 3,100]. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850. The weather during the growing season of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, trade policies, and the results of relevant hearings are the key factors affecting the market [3][5]. Petroleum Asphalt - In the short term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate and strengthen following the cost of crude oil. In the long term, the supply is on the rise, and factors such as typhoon weather in summer and insufficient project funds may affect the release of rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement of asphalt demand in August [6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Supply**: In June, Chile's copper export value was $4.67 billion, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Indonesia may relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to local economic impacts [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's home air - conditioner exports were 9.695 million units, a slight 0.1% year - on - year increase, affected by the high base last year and "rush - to - export" behavior [1]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, LME copper inventory increased by 4,625 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 2,227 tons to 21,336 tons [2]. Protein Meal - **Soybean**: From late May to now, the soil moisture of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds has been good. As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of 25/26 US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. Anec expects sufficient soybean arrivals in South America in July and August, and the trend of imported soybean inventory accumulation is gradually ending [3][4]. - **Rapeseed**: The drought in Canadian new - crop rapeseeds in late June has recently improved. As of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseeds in Alberta has recovered from 45% to 58%. The development progress of oilseed crops and annual forage crops in Saskatchewan is still slower than normal but earlier than last year [4]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Supply**: As of July 8, the production profit of asphalt in Shandong independent refineries was - 543.66 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 95.61 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt refinery operating rate was 32.7%, a weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point. The domestic weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,000 tons. In the first six months of this year, China's cumulative asphalt production was 13.781 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for asphalt is weak, mainly restricted by capital shortages and heavy rainfall in the South. The demand in the North is relatively stable. After the plum - rain season in East and South China in July, it theoretically enters the peak demand season, but some northern regions are still affected by rainfall. The social inventory depletion has slowed down [7]. - **Cost**: The extension of the US tariff negotiation period and Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have provided upward momentum for oil prices. In summer, the peak driving season arrives, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries return to normal, and US shale oil production has declined for ten consecutive weeks, providing some support for oil prices [7].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides analysis and trading strategies for financial and commodity futures and options, suggesting that the stock index is in a bullish cycle and the bond market is expected to strengthen, while the black and building materials sectors are expected to stop falling and stabilize. Summary by Directory Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a bullish bias - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2507 - **Core Logic**: Support policies are continuously implemented, overseas tariff risks are rising, the technical form shows a potential upward trend, and market risk appetite is increasing [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds are bullish - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - position approach for T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Inter - bank liquidity is loose, and there is an increasing expectation of policy support due to weak fundamentals [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector** - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil - **Intraday View**: Short - term shift between long and short positions, with weakening downward drivers - **Medium - term View**: Stop falling and stabilize - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in the call option RB2510 - C - 3000 and adopt a short - position strategy for the RB2510 straddle option (range: 2900 - 3200) - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure on steel raw materials is expected to ease, reducing the potential supply pressure on finished steel products [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - This report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple commodity futures and options, including livestock, soft commodities, and energy, and provides short - term and medium - term views and trading strategies for each variety. - **Livestock and Soft Commodities**: - **Pig**: The current supply and demand are both weak, with a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high [1][2]. - **Sugar**: It shows a short - term weak shock and a medium - term trend of rising first and then falling. It is advisable to sell high [3][4][5]. - **Energy**: - **Crude Oil**: It has a short - term weak shock and a medium - term downward pressure. Selling out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil is recommended [6][7][8]. - **PVC**: It has a short - term range shock and limited upward space in the medium term. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Short - term View**: Narrow - range shock [1] - **Medium - term View**: Near - strong and far - weak [1] - **Strategy**: Sell high [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: The average weight of pig slaughter is decreasing, and the weight - reduction rhythm is accelerating due to policy and temperature. The market's ability to digest pork is limited, and the demand for large pigs is in the off - season [1]. - **Demand**: The secondary fattening group may continue to enter the market due to low pig prices, low feed prices, and an expanding standard - fat price difference. Secondary fattening still has a continuous impact on pig prices [1]. - **Market**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch leads to a strong bullish sentiment, but the current supply - demand is weak, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise [2]. Sugar - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rising first and then falling [3] - **Strategy**: Sell high [4] - **Core Logic**: - **International**: The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with a significant supply surplus. Brazil's gasoline price cut and expected production increase, as well as India's expected large - scale production increase, will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term [4]. - **Domestic**: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the inventory pressure is small, but the import profit window is open, and the future supply pressure is the core factor restricting sugar prices. The current basis can support the market, but the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to be realized [5]. Crude Oil - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil [6] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: OPEC + will increase production in August, and may increase production significantly again in early August. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the growth rate of U.S. crude oil production will slow down in the long term [6][7]. - **Demand**: Although the refinery operating rates in major consuming countries are high, the downstream demand has not reached the peak season level. The demand for gasoline and diesel has limited growth [7]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased, and commercial crude oil inventories will accumulate in the third quarter [8]. PVC - **Short - term View**: Range shock (4800 - 5000) [9] - **Medium - term View**: Limited upward space [9] - **Strategy**: Hold the strategy of selling out - of - the money call options [9] - **Core Logic**: - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide has increased, and the price has decreased [9]. - **Supply**: Some PVC plants are under maintenance, but there are new production capacity expectations, and the supply will increase significantly [9][10]. - **Demand**: The low - level rebound of PVC futures prices has boosted the replenishment willingness of some downstream enterprises, but the downstream operating rate is low, and the domestic demand will continue to weaken. The export has short - term support, but there is uncertainty in anti - dumping policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the PVC inventory has accumulated [10].