Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be affected by the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices. Zinc prices are likely to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with overseas supply being tight and domestic production cuts and demand off - season coexisting. Industrial silicon is expected to run at a high level, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern will improve with the implementation of new energy - consumption standards. Refined tin prices will remain high due to tight global supply, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the supply - demand balance in 2026 [1][3][4][5][6][9][10][12][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US government shutdown ended, and Fed officials made hawkish remarks. Supply - wise, global copper supply is tight, with an increase in domestic port inventory and a rise in copper concentrate TC. Demand - side, the开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined in October, and copper rod production decreased. Copper bar demand is weak. Inventory shows regional differentiation, with LME and SHFE inventories low and COMEX inventory increasing significantly [1][2]. - **Outlook**: Negative factors such as the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices will affect copper prices [3]. Zinc - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy and a suggestion to sell a wide - straddle option combination [4]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is divided, and the US government shutdown risk is alleviated. Supply - wise, global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with overseas production differentiation and domestic supply also showing signs of tightness. Demand shows an "external strong, internal weak" pattern. Inventory is differentiated, with LME zinc inventory at a historical low and SHFE zinc inventory increasing [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upside in the domestic market is limited due to weak demand [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 9000 - 9100, and mid - term view is "range operation" in the range of 8800 - 9300, with a bullish strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production decreased year - on - year. Demand from polysilicon increased. Inventory is at a 7 - year high, but the strong polysilicon price boosts industrial silicon prices [6]. Polysilicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 52,500 - 54,000, and mid - term view is "range fluctuation" in the range of 50,000 - 60,000, with a bullish strategy [7]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production increased year - on - year. Demand from silicon wafers increased significantly. Inventory is stable. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [7][9]. Refined Tin - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 290,000 - 295,000, and mid - term view is "high - level oscillation" in the range of 270,000 - 300,000, with a strategy to sell SN2512 - P - 250000 [10]. - **Core Logic**: Global tin supply is tight due to the complex resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Processing fees are at a low level, indicating tight domestic supply. Inventory is at a certain level, and the ore end supports tin prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "strong operation" in the range of 94,000 - 98,000, and mid - term view is "oscillation and upward" in the range of 80,000 - 100,000, with a bullish strategy [11][12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price has reached a new high. In October, production increased year - on - year, and inventory is still high. However, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve in 2026, which will drive up prices [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global vegetable oils: Sunflower oil is the fourth-largest vegetable oil globally, with its total production approaching that of rapeseed oil. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to steadily advance the research and registration of sunflower oil futures [4]. - Supply and demand in China: In China, the supply of sunflower oil raw materials comes from both domestic cultivation and imports, and the supply of refined oil is about half domestic production and half imports. The consumption of sunflower oil is significantly lower than that of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil, but higher than that of linseed oil, olive oil, and camellia oil. Its pricing needs to consider both domestic and international factors [4]. - Substitution potential: Refined sunflower oil and refined peanut oil have similar fatty acid ratios and smoke points, and may have a strong substitution relationship in the Chinese catering industry. If global sunflower seed cultivation increases, it may reduce the overall cost of China's catering cooking oil [4]. - Production and consumption: Domestic oil - pressing enterprises have mature processes and market experience in sunflower oil production, and some well - known brands have been accepted by consumers. The delivery standards of sunflower oil are expected to be widely accepted by producers and the catering industry [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil - used Sunflower: An Annual Herbaceous Oil Crop in Mid - Latitude Regions, Neighbor to Spring Rapeseed - Global status: Sunflower oil is the fourth - largest vegetable oil globally. Oil - used sunflower (oil - used sunflower) is one of China's five major oil crops. It is rich in linoleic acid and is known as the "healthy and nutritious oil" of the 21st century [21]. - Cultivation in China: In China, oil - used sunflower is mainly planted in northern provinces. It is usually sown in spring when the soil temperature at 10 cm depth is above 10°C, and harvested from August to September. It has stronger adaptability to soil pH than rapeseed, and mechanical harvesting can be considered in large - scale farms [21]. - Comparison with rapeseed: Oil - used sunflower and rapeseed are comparable in terms of oil - producing potential, but they have significant differences in crop morphology, growth laws, and cultivation requirements. Factors such as soil alkalinity, the need for large - scale mechanization, and local high - yield demonstration fields should be considered when choosing between them [25][26]. 3.2 Can Sunflower Oil Rich in Linoleic Acid Omega - 6 Integrate into Chinese Cuisine? - Consumption form: In China, sunflower oil is mainly for edible consumption, and it is unlikely to be used as a raw material for biodiesel under current policies. The retail and wholesale prices of sunflower oil are usually lower than those of peanut oil and higher than those of genetically modified soybean oil [28][30]. - Fatty acid composition: Sunflower oil and peanut oil are similar in fatty acid distribution, both being rich in linoleic acid. They may have a strong substitution relationship in Chinese cuisine, although the current annual consumption of sunflower oil in China is less than 5 million tons [30][35]. - Smoke point: The smoke point of sunflower oil is generally defined as the lowest temperature at which it produces continuous blue smoke when heated without ventilation. Refined sunflower oil can reach a smoke point of over 190°C, meeting the requirements of most Chinese restaurants. If sunflower oil futures are launched, the delivery standard is likely to be "national standard grade 3", which can be refined to "national standard grade 1" to meet catering needs [36][40][43]. 3.3 Import of Sunflower Oil: A Reference for the "Full Customs Process" - Sunflower oil import process: The import of sunflower oil requires overseas production enterprise registration, importer and exporter filing, and compliance with customs declaration document requirements. Customs conducts qualified assessment upon arrival, and there are specific storage and transportation requirements for bulk sunflower oil [49][50][51]. - Sunflower seed import: Sunflower seeds are a long - term trade surplus product in China. The import volume shows an upward trend. They are classified as "oilseeds" by customs and need to obtain the "Entry Animal and Plant Quarantine Permit" [56]. - Current market products: There are many well - known domestic sunflower oil brands, each with its own characteristics, such as market share, quality, and health - related features [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fourth - quarter supply - demand and timing in 2025 may be comparable to that in 2018. Multiple scenarios are assumed for factors such as US soybean exports, yields, and biodiesel policies, as well as Canadian canola imports, to analyze potential impacts on the market [4][24][51] - It is expected that the prices of soybean and canola oil and meal will fluctuate greatly in the fourth quarter, and trading timing is difficult. Hedging is recommended, and the spread strategy between domestic and imported soybeans can be tried [7] Summary by Directory 1. Price Operating Range 1.1 2025 US Soybean and Soybean Meal Event Review - In 2024/2025, US soybeans had a large harvest, and Brazil's sowing was fast. In 2025, there were multiple rounds of tariff adjustments between China and the US, and the tariff on US soybeans decreased over time. The indicators of US soybeans in USDA's monthly reports were frequently adjusted, with lower production, higher domestic crushing consumption, lower exports, and roughly the same ending stocks compared to previous years [11][15] 1.2 2025 Canadian Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Event Review - Since 2024, there have been trade frictions between China and Canada regarding rapeseed. In 2025, the "anti - dumping investigation" and "anti - discrimination investigation" had results, and the investigation period was extended. The domestic rapeseed production was estimated to be stable, and the uncertainty lies in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [20][22] 2. Supply - demand Overview of US Soybeans and Domestic Soybean Meal 2.1 US Soybeans - According to the USDA's September WASDE report, compared with the previous year, the planted area, harvested area, and ending stocks of US soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased slightly, while the yield per harvested acre and production increased slightly. The domestic crushing consumption increased significantly [23] - Three scenarios are assumed: if the yield per acre is reduced from 53.5 to 51 bushels/acre, the ending stocks will be greatly affected; if the export volume is reduced to a level similar to 2018, the ending stocks will increase; if the EPA reduces the RVO, the crushing volume in the balance sheet will be rewritten, but it is estimated that the crushing volume will not return to the level before 2023 [24][27] 2.2 Chinese Soybeans - According to the September balance sheet of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the import volume of new - crop soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased by about 10 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing consumption decreased by 4 million tons. The decrease in crushing consumption is related to the regulation of the pig - breeding industry and the promotion of low - protein diet technology [29][31] 3. Supply - demand Overview of Canadian Rapeseed and Domestic Rapeseed Meal 3.1 Canadian Rapeseed - According to the AAFC's August report, the planted area and harvested area of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 - 2026 decreased, while the yield increased, and the production increased slightly. The export volume decreased, and the ending stocks increased [32] - Two scenarios are assumed: if the export volume increases to the level of 2022/2023, the ending stocks will decrease; if the export volume decreases to the level of 2021/2022, the ending stocks will increase [41] 3.2 Chinese Rapeseed - According to the September forecast, the production of domestic rapeseed in 2025 increased slightly, and the import volume decreased. There is still room for adjustment in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed. Two scenarios are assumed: if the import volume is reduced to the 2019 level, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has a small downward space; if the import volume is increased to the 2024 level, the spread has a large upward space [43][51] 4. Main Contract Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only relevant spread charts are mentioned 5. Main Supply - demand Data Overview - A large number of data charts on the production, cost, inventory, and trade of US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are provided, as well as data on domestic soybean and rapeseed processing, consumption, and livestock - breeding inventory [64][73][81]

Core View - Recently, there are hot topics in the domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean and rapeseed meal and oil, and palm oil [1] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oil - On the evening of September 9th, Zhang Baofeng, a member of the Party Committee and Director of the General Office of the General Administration of Customs, met with Saskatchewan Premier Moe and Prime Minister's Parliamentary Secretary Blois to exchange views on deepening China - Canada customs inspection and quarantine cooperation [2] - Canadian Agriculture Minister Macdonald said on September 9th that Canada is discussing relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles; the rapeseed industry group reported producers' losses, and the federal government is considering China's requirements [2] - Safras & Mercado estimated that as of September 5th, 84.1% (144.54 million tons) of Brazil's 2024/25 soybeans were sold, lower than last year's 87.7% and the five - year average of 89.3%; 20.5% (37.06 million tons) of 2025/26 soybeans were pre - sold, lower than last year's 24.8% and the five - year average of 29.2%. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.2% to 48.21 million hectares, with a record output of 180.92 million tons, a 5.3% increase from 2024/25. Brazil's 2026 soybean exports are expected to reach 108 million tons, and 2025 exports are raised by 1 million to 105 million tons; 2026 crushing is raised by 0.5 million to 59.5 million tons, and 2025 crushing is raised by 1 million to 58 million tons. Due to an 8% increase in total supply and a 3% increase in total demand in 2026, inventory will rise from 7.37 million tons to 17.39 million tons [2] - AgRural reported that as of September 4th, 0.02% of Brazil's 2025/26 soybeans were sown, compared to 0% last year. The first batch of soybeans in Brazil in September was sown two weeks earlier than last year [3] Palm Oil - On September 10th, MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1,855,008 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1,324,672 tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; imports were 49,036 tons; and inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Net exports were lower than expected, and end - of - month inventory was higher than expected [4]

Report Core View - Ukraine has increased export taxes on soybeans and rapeseed, and the export tax will last until January 1, 2030, then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [1] - Two cold fronts are expected to sweep across the United States this week, bringing scattered showers, and the temperature will drop again after the cold fronts pass. As of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina occurring in Brazil in spring has increased, which may lead to drought in the south and affect soybean production. Brazilian farmers have sold less than 20% of the new-season soybeans, slower than in previous years [1] - In August, India's palm oil imports increased by 16% month-on-month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports grew strongly in August, with different data sources showing growth rates of 30.53%, 15.37%, and 10.2% respectively [2] Summary by Directory Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oils - Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will be adjusted in the future [1] - Cold fronts in the US may affect soybean growth, and the current good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina in Brazil may affect soybean production, and Brazilian farmers are delaying soybean sales [1] Palm Oils - India's palm oil imports increased significantly in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% [2] - Indian traders predict that palm oil and soybean oil imports in September will remain at relatively high levels [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports showed strong growth in August [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - **Mid - term View**: Wide - range shock - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - **Mid - term View**: Strong - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper** - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - **Mid - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - **Core Logic**: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Intraday View**: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - **Core Logic**: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Mid - term View**: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Intraday View**: Short - term decline but limited downside space - **Mid - term View**: Lack of upward driving force - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - **Sugar** - **Intraday View**: Run weakly - **Mid - term View**: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit long positions and wait and see - **Core Logic**: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - **Protein Meal** - **Intraday View**: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - **Mid - term View**: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - **Core Logic**: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil** - **Intraday View**: There is upward space - **Mid - term View**: Under pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - **Core Logic**: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - **PVC** - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - **Mid - term View**: Support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].

Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is bullish. The global risk sentiment is boosted by the dovish stance of the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the market expects two rate cuts this year. The market volume is high, and policy measures are in place to boost domestic demand [1]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in IF2509 and IO - 4300 - P put options for protection [1]. - Overseas, the Fed's possible rate cut in September boosts global risk sentiment and benefits the valuation of science - and - technology - related sectors [1]. - In terms of capital sentiment, market volume is high, margin trading balance is stable above 2.1 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to market capitalization has risen to 2.30%. Leverage funds are actively entering the market. Equity ETFs have net inflows [1]. - Policy - wise, the State Council is promoting policies to expand domestic demand [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a continued rebound, and the medium - term view is a rebound in the making. The bond market is expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term [2][3]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in TL2512 [2]. - The central bank's MLF operation has led to a large - scale net injection, and the inter - bank market funds are abundant. Short - term interest rates have declined [3]. - The stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. Although the equity market is strong in the short - term, the bond market is expected to rise in the long - term [3]. - Economic data in July showed a slowdown, indicating that the bond market is unlikely to shift from a bull to a bear market [3]. Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a range - bound movement between 79,290 and 80,100, and the medium - term view is a range - bound movement between 60,000 and 90,000. The price is expected to rise with some support factors [4][5]. - Key Points: - Adopt an operation idea of oscillating with a slight upward bias [5]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides macro - level support for copper prices [4]. - The supply side is tightening, with some mines approaching export quotas and potential production cuts by refineries. However, some producers have different production trends [4]. - The demand side is positive, with an increase in global refined copper consumption, growth in China's power grid investment, and a significant increase in global energy - storage battery shipments [4]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Industrial Silicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [8]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [8]. - In July, China's industrial silicon production decreased by 30.56% year - on - year [8]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level in the past seven years, which is a negative factor for prices [8]. - The "Kunming Initiative" in the industrial silicon industry aims to boost prices [9]. Group 5: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Polysilicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [10]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [10]. - In June, China's polysilicon production decreased by 33.11% year - on - year [10]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of polysilicon increased week - on - week, indicating an obvious oversupply [12]. - The "anti - involution" expectation boosts polysilicon prices [13]. Group 6: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is high - level operation, and the medium - term view is bullish. The price is supported by supply and demand factors [14]. - Key Points: - Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 put options [14]. - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has limited room for growth after the 2017 supply - side reform [14]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at the second - lowest level in the past five years, which is positive for prices [14]. - China's automobile production and sales have increased year - on - year, which is beneficial for aluminum prices [14]. Group 7: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Lithium Carbonate - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is wide - range fluctuations, and the medium - term view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The price is affected by supply, inventory, and market information [17]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea but operate cautiously [17][18]. - On August 25, the price of lithium carbonate declined for three consecutive days, but increased in the past 30 days [17]. - In July 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 51% year - on - year, and the total inventory is at a high level this year, which is negative for prices [17]. Group 8: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is a decline with limited downside, and the medium - term view is a lack of upward momentum. The cost support for steel prices is weakening [19]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 [19]. - The supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to increase, weakening the cost support for steel prices [19]. - Policy - based production restrictions are less than expected, and steel production is still high. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has been accumulating, reducing the upward momentum [19][20]. Group 9: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Sugar - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is bearish, and the medium - term view is that there is strong support at the bottom. The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex [21]. - Key Points: - There is strong support at the bottom. The reference range for Zhengzhou sugar is (5,500, 5,900) [21]. - Brazil's sugar production and exports decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is also expected to increase production [21]. - In China, the production of refined sugar is at a historical high, and the supply is expected to be more abundant with the listing of Inner Mongolia's beet sugar [21]. Group 10: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is that soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3,075, 3,175], and the medium - term view is that it will fluctuate significantly in August and September. The market is affected by the production of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed [22]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in soybean oil 2601 and long positions in palm oil 2601 [22]. - The average yield of US corn and soybeans is expected to reach a record high. The situation of US soybean exports to China needs attention [22][23]. - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the production is expected to increase significantly [24]. Group 11: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is that there is upward potential, and the long - term view is that prices are under pressure. The oil market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [25][27]. - Key Points: - Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [25]. - OPEC+ is maintaining its production increase strategy, and the supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to geopolitical factors. The US oil production growth is expected to slow down [26]. - The demand for gasoline in the US is seasonally declining, and the diesel demand is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [27]. Group 12: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - PVC - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a stable rebound, and the medium - term view is that there is support at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [28]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC [28]. - The price of calcium carbide has increased due to reduced supply. The supply of PVC has decreased recently but is expected to increase in the future [28][29]. - The demand for PVC is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating. However, the inventory is expected to decrease in the future, and the export may recover [29][30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The global risk sentiment is boosted by the Fed's dovish stance, and the A - share market shows positive signs in terms of funds and policies. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and economic fundamentals [1][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, nickel is expected to trade in a range, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum are expected to show a relatively strong performance [4][6][12]. - **Black and Building Materials**: The prices of steel products are under pressure due to changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17]. - **Agricultural and Livestock Products**: The sugar market shows different trends at home and abroad, and the protein meal market is affected by factors such as crop yields and trade policies [18][20]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The LPG market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors, and the PVC market is influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [24][27]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 and buy IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Dovish Fed stance, high market trading volume, and positive policies [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely and wait for a rebound - **Medium - term View**: Accumulate strength for a rebound - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: Ample capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and slow economic recovery [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options - **Nickel**: - **Intraday View**: Trade in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 - **Medium - term View**: Trade in the range of 115,000 - 132,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell N2509I - C - 124000 and NI2509 - P - 116000 - **Core Logic**: Complex supply - demand factors, including production in Indonesia, stainless - steel production, and battery demand [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,700 - 9,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and industry initiatives [6][7] - **Polysilicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and "anti - involution" expectations [8][9][11] - **Aluminum**: - **Intraday View**: Trade at a high level in the range of 20,600 - 20,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 19,500 - 21,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2509 - P - 19300 put options - **Core Logic**: Limited production capacity increase, low inventory, and strong demand in the automotive market [12] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely in the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Medium - term View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias in the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: High supply, high inventory, and price fluctuations affected by industry information [13] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Intraday View**: Decline in the short term but with limited downside space - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward momentum - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: Changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17] Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Sugar**: - **Intraday View**: Weak performance - **Medium - term View**: Strong support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: The price has strong support at the bottom - **Core Logic**: Different trends at home and abroad, with potential supply increases in major producing countries [18] - **Protein Meal**: - **Intraday View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3075, 3175] - **Medium - term View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short - soybean meal 2601 and long - rapeseed meal 2601 strategy; continue to hold the short - soybean oil 2601 and long - palm oil 2601 strategy - **Core Logic**: Crop yields in North America and trade policies between the US and China [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on PG2510 - **Core Logic**: Decreased supply, low demand, and rising costs in the short term, but an overall loose supply - demand pattern in the long term [24][25] - **PVC**: - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound - **Medium - term View**: Supported at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: Rising raw material costs, decreased supply, weak demand, high inventory, and potential export changes [27][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]

Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]