光大期货能化商品日报（2025年4月1日）-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, it gives a view of "oscillation" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: On Monday, the price center of oil rose significantly. Geopolitical issues, such as the tension between the US and Iran, and the market's attention to the implementation of US tariff policies, are expected to cause the oil price to continue its rebound [1]. - Fuel Oil: The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 increased by 30% compared to the same period last year. The short - term supply shortage of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease, and the domestic bonded low - sulfur marine fuel oil export may gradually increase. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after short - term oil price fluctuations [1]. - Asphalt: Raw material supply may be affected by US sanctions on Venezuela, and the comprehensive production cost of local refineries will increase in the second quarter, which will suppress supply. Terminal demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but the lack of momentum in traditional infrastructure may limit the actual improvement in demand [2]. - Polyester: Multiple polyester plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts. Downstream demand support has weakened, and polyester chain prices are under pressure to fall [2]. - Rubber: Domestic production in Yunnan is expected to be normal, and downstream tire demand remains stable. With supply increasing and demand stable, rubber prices are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in weather conditions [3]. - Methanol: The supply side has good production profits, and overseas supply is recovering. The demand side is expected to remain high in the short term but may weaken in the long term. Overall, the near - term inventory will continue to decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Polyolefins: As refinery maintenance increases, supply pressure decreases, but demand will also weaken marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI May contract closed at $71.48/barrel, up $2.12 or 3.06%; Brent May contract closed at $74.74/barrel, up $1.11 or 1.51%; SC2505 closed at 553.9 yuan/barrel, up 16.5 yuan or 3.07%. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran led to the rise in oil prices, and the overall oil price is expected to continue to rebound [1]. - Fuel Oil: FU2505 closed down 0.37% at 3208 yuan/ton; LU2506 closed down 0.81% at 3677 yuan/ton. The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 was 5200000 tons, an increase of 1200000 tons or 30% compared to last year [1]. - Asphalt: BU2506 closed down 0.75% at 3587 yuan/ton. Raw material supply may be affected by sanctions, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but traditional infrastructure may limit demand improvement [2]. - Polyester: TA505 closed down 1.06% at 4842 yuan/ton; EG2505 closed down 0.09% at 4447 yuan/ton. Multiple polyester plants carried out maintenance and production cuts, and downstream demand weakened [2]. - Rubber: RU2505 fell 110 yuan/ton to 16560 yuan/ton; NR fell 0 yuan/ton to 14390 yuan/ton; BR fell 25 yuan/ton to 13535 yuan/ton. Yunnan's production is expected to be normal, and downstream demand is stable [3]. - Methanol: Supply is recovering, and demand is expected to weaken in the long term. The near - term inventory will decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose [4]. - Polyolefins: Supply pressure decreases, but demand weakens marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - PVC: Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on March 31, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US attacks Iran without a nuclear agreement, the US will be severely hit. Trump previously threatened to bomb Iran if it does not accept the negotiation proposal in early March [9]. - New York Fed President Williams said there is a risk of inflation rising this year, but his baseline view is that inflation will remain relatively stable, and inflation is affected by tariffs and other policies [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [11]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [26]. - 4.3 Inter - term Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41]. - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: It includes the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report presents the production profit charts of products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [71]. 3.6 Contact Information The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [76].