沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨-6.26 点，通信,银行,家用电器等板块对指数向上拉动明显，汽车,计算机,电力设备等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-13 一、指数走势 11 月 12 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.07%，收于 4000.14 点，成交额 8404.67 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.36%，收于 13240.62 点，成交额 11045.67 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.72%，成交额 3904.82 亿元，其中开盘价 7520.18，收盘价 7486.38，当日最高价 7537.76，最低价 7421.46； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.66%，成交额 3138.4 亿元，其中开盘价 7264.79，收盘价 7243.25，当日最高价 7305.86，最低价 7187.87； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.13%，成交额 4923.09 亿元，其中开盘价 4643.56，收盘价 4645.91，当日最高价 4669.61，最低价 4620.99； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 1368.9 亿元，其中开盘价 3035.03，收盘价 3044. ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 A | 点评 股市场全天探底回升，三大指数小幅下跌。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 3500 股飘绿，今日成交 1.96 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.07%，深成指跌 0.36%， 创业板指跌 0.39%。中美元首近日于韩国举行会谈，双边关系向着稳中向好 | | | | 的方向迈进，有利于我国需求总量的提升，也有利于 A 股科技股继续对标美 | | | | 股估值。《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》聚焦几大 | | | | 主线：（1）"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历史机遇"并形成现代化产业 | | | 股指 | 体系；（2）继续扩大内需，"促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动"；（3） | 震荡 | | | 继续深化改革和扩大开放。《公报》内容符合市场预期，提振市场信心，预计 | | | | 未来结构化行情仍将延续。但当前科创指数估值处于历史极值位置，盘面上 | | | | 谨慎追高。短期来看，三季报结束发布，重要会议后市场关注点可能重新回 | | | | 到基本面上来，A 股非金融三季报累计营收同比增速+0.3% ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收涨 0.67%，报 2693 元/ 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2601 收涨 1.44%，报 3311 元/吨。亚 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 洲低硫市场仍面临即期供应充足和下游船燃活动低迷的困境，但 | | | | 目前东西方套利窗口基本关闭，或有助于减少 12 月来自欧洲的套 | | | 燃料油 | 利货物。亚洲高硫燃料油市场仍受到下游船燃平稳需求的支撑， | 震荡 | | | 但供应方面暂时维持充足，关注制裁对于俄罗斯和伊朗货量的持 | | | | 续影响。预计近期低硫和高硫市场结构继续逆转，LU-FU 价差或 | | | | 维持反弹。 | | | | 周三，上期所沥青主力合约 BU2601 收涨 0.86%，报 3063 元/吨。 | | | | 百川盈孚统计，本周社会库存率为 28.50%，环比下降 0.80%；本 | | | | 周国内沥青厂装置开工率为 33.50%，环比下降 0.36%。本周国内 | | | | 炼厂沥青总库存水平为 28.45%，环比上升 0.6%； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. International market sentiment is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the US government's opening time. The upcoming USDA monthly report on Friday is worth attention. In the domestic market, there are both long and short factors. Supply pressure is high, but there is support from cost and expected reduction in supply pressure over time and a possible decline in the inventory - to - sales ratio this year [1]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. The export of Brazilian sugar in the first week of November decreased compared to the average daily export in November last year. The raw sugar market is driven by the recovery of commodities, and the domestic market is waiting for the start of the crushing season in Thailand and India. The domestic crushing is postponed, and the market is watching if the price can break through the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.59% to 63.93 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.04% to 13,560 yuan/ton, and the main - contract positions increased by 3,733 to 573,900. The 3128B cotton spot price index rose 5 yuan/ton to 14,445 yuan/ton [1]. - **Sugar**: In the first week of November, Brazil exported 685,700 tons of sugar and molasses, with an average daily export of 137,100 tons, a 23% decrease compared to the average daily export in November last year. Domestic sugar prices generally increased, and the raw sugar market slightly rose [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 0, unchanged; the main - contract basis was 1,282, up 18; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,668, down 3, and the national spot price was 14,842, down 2 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 67, unchanged; the main - contract basis was 250, down 5; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,730, unchanged [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 11, the cotton futures warehouse receipts increased by 325 to 3,619, with 1,154 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 11, the sugar spot price in Liuzhou was unchanged at 5,730 yuan/ton, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts increased by 58 to 7,721, with 1,183 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of the main contracts over different time periods [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 11 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 9180 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.54%，持仓 减仓 10544 手至 27.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9692 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 38 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货贴水收 至 230 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 51930 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.5%，持仓增仓 12494 手至 13.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元 /吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 1100 元/吨。西 南硅厂规模减产，因下游出现同步减产，未能实现去库节奏。硅厂提前挺 价持货，盘面提前计价减产预期，限制价格向上修复空间。11 月多晶硅料 和下游硅片排产均有下滑，硅料计划减产规模超过下游，但硅片配额强限 下，减产节奏先于上游。随着多晶硅产能平台消息影响淡化，短期弱现实 引导盘面处于低位盘整阶段。因行业会议再度召开，产能平台动态较多， 多晶硅存在消息端提振效应，不宜过分追空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米期、现报价联动上调。近期受港口报价上调的利多因素影响，玉米期 价延续上行。当日，玉米主力 2601 合约减仓上行，因政策预期利好玉米期、现 | | | | 联动反弹。周末北港玉米价格继续偏强运行，目前北港船期密集，贸易商提价收 | | | 玉米 | 购，但产区余粮整体较为充裕，产区仍有卖压，产区与港口之间存在一定的博弈。 | 上涨 | | | 周末销区市场玉米价格窄幅上调。北港价格上涨，销区部分港口贸易商同步上调 | | | | 报价。下游饲料企业仍维持谨慎观望心态，做远期库存意愿不强。技术上，在 | | | | 40 日均线支撑之下，玉米主力 2601 合约突破底部颈线，期价形成技术性突破上 | | | | 行的表现，建议短线多单继续参与。 | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆下跌，市场等待需求前景明朗。在周五供需报告发布前，投资 | | | | 者调整头寸。路透公布对 USDA 11 月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测， | | | | 分析师平均预计 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱运行，主力 01 合约收盘价 1640 元/吨，跌幅 1.26%。现货市 场多数稳定，个别地区价格小幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格昨日分别为 1610 元 | | | | /吨、1620 元/吨，日环比分别下调 10 元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素装置窄幅波 | | | | 动，行业日产量昨日稳定在 19.51 万吨。需求端表现偏弱，昨日主流地区产销率 10%～ | 宽幅震荡 | | 尿素 | 40%区间，目前农业需求处于淡季，工业需求支撑有限，淡储需求仍需时间，内需支 | | | | 撑力度偏弱。近期虽有新增出口配额及印度招标等外部利好因素，但市场对此逐渐消 | | | | 化。在印标结果出炉前市场处于政策及消息真空期，预计盘面区间偏弱震荡为主。关 | | | | 注现货成交节奏、出口动态及后续印标结果。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格震荡偏弱运行，主力 01 合约收盘价 1215 元 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 ADP 就业数 | | | | 据显示，10 月 ADP 私营部门就业人数减少 4.5 万，创两年半来最大降幅消息方面，就 | | | | 业数据的萎靡提振了美联储降息预期。昨晚市场在逐步消化美政府预期将重新开门的 | | | | 利好后，美股重新表现低迷，这也加重了市场担忧。国内方面，央行发布 2025 年第三 | | | | 季度中国货币政策执行报告指出，要平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与 | | | | 外部均衡、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，强化宏观政策取向一致 | | | 铜 | 性，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 | | | | 库存方面，LME 库存下降 25 吨至 136250 吨；Comex 库存增加 3925 吨至 341677 吨； | | | | SHFE 铜仓单下降 825 吨至 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 11, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.38% to 86,540 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 80,100 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 608 tons to 28,099 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,406 tons to 123,953 tons [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, demand in November continued to increase month-on-month, and social inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. However, there are significant differences in news factors, and the rhythm of project resumption is unknown. Short-term market sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to actual project resumption time and the first-quarter off - season in the power sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 86,540 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 84,620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Lithium ore prices generally increased, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 122,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to -6,370 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12]. - **3.3 Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][26]. - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34]. - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March to November 2025 [36][37][38]. - **3.7 Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 737.0 | 742.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 717.0 | 722.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -43.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 763.0 | 765.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...