交银国际每日晨报-2025-04-01

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that global uncertainty has increased, leading to a volatile performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of 14.32% despite a 1.49% decline in March [1] - Southbound capital continues to flow into the market, indicating a cautious yet optimistic outlook among investors, with the potential for a rebound if U.S.-China relations improve [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data and policy signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of April as key market drivers [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high elasticity and high dividend sectors, particularly in the AI and technology sectors, driven by domestic advancements in AI infrastructure [2] - The semiconductor industry is also highlighted as a sector with significant potential, especially for domestic chip design companies benefiting from import substitution [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, telecommunications, and banks are suggested as stable investments due to their attractive cash flow and dividend yields [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - New Oriental Education Technology is expected to see a 25% revenue growth in FY2025, although its study abroad business faces challenges, leading to a target price adjustment to HKD 46.00 [7] - Green Source Group's revenue is projected to decline slightly, but its electric bicycle segment shows resilience, with a target price increase to HKD 7.16 [8][9] - Kangfang Biotech anticipates strong product sales growth in 2024, with a target price raised to HKD 92.00, reflecting confidence in its pipeline and market position [12][13] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The report notes that the overall financial performance of companies like Daqing New Energy is under pressure, with a projected 14.1% decline in profit for 2024, but an increase in installed capacity is expected to drive future growth [20][21] - Xiexin Technology is experiencing significant cost reductions in granular silicon production, leading to an upgrade in its rating to "Buy" despite a projected loss of CNY 4.75 billion in 2024 [22] - Longyuan Power is expected to see a 2.9% increase in profit for 2024, with a target price of HKD 8.00, supported by favorable wind power pricing [23][24]