多元资产月报（2025年4月）：国内交易逻辑回归基本面，关税政策搅动海外变局-2025-04-01

Group 1: Domestic Economic Overview - The domestic economy shows better performance in internal demand compared to external demand, with supply-side recovery outpacing demand-side recovery. Fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.0% and infrastructure investment by 10.0% [13][19] - Consumer spending has been positively impacted by policy measures, with retail sales increasing by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, particularly driven by a 26.2% increase in communication equipment due to expanded replacement policies [13][19] - The export sector has shown signs of slowing down, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.3% in January-February, and a decline of 3.0% in February alone [13][19] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The macro policy has been set to be "more proactive and effective," with a GDP growth target of 5% for the year and a CPI target adjusted down to 2% [19][20] - The fiscal policy maintains a proactive stance, with a deficit target set at 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, which is an increase from the previous year [19][20] - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with indications of potential interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools to support the stock and real estate markets [19][20] Group 3: Market Performance and Outlook - The A-share market has experienced a shift from small-cap growth stocks to large-cap dividend stocks, indicating a market rotation [5][19] - The bond market is expected to see a slight decline in yields amidst fluctuations, with structural opportunities in local government bonds and steepening yield curves [5][19] - The outlook for April suggests a continued recovery in production, with manufacturing sentiment expected to improve, while the real estate market's recovery pace remains to be observed [5][19] Group 4: International Economic Context - The U.S. economy is anticipated to experience moderate cooling, with labor market impacts from government layoffs and inflation expectations influencing consumer behavior [9][19] - The U.S. stock market is under pressure from valuation corrections and negative earnings expectations, while the bond market's yield decline is expected to be limited [9][19] - The Hong Kong stock market is in a phase of valuation recovery, awaiting new catalysts amid ongoing fluctuations influenced by U.S. policies [9][19]