工业硅、多晶硅日报-2025-04-01

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,460 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 1.36%, and the position increasing by 159 lots to 27,527 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 1,460 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,785 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 1.12%, and the position decreasing by 9,139 lots to 220,200 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been reports of joint production cuts by enterprises, but no consensus has been reached. Before large manufacturers implement large-scale production cuts, it is difficult to effectively reduce industrial silicon inventories, and the price will continue to bottom out. The earthquake in Myanmar has caused problems such as furnace shutdowns, rod explosions, and furnace explosions in factories in Yunnan and Yibin, the core rod-drawing regions in western China. Coupled with the demand driven by the April delivery, there is support for the polysilicon price. However, the recent end-market rush to install has digested component inventories, diluting the demand transmission, and there is limited upside potential [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,820 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 9,780 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The current lowest deliverable price was 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 90 yuan to -130 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 69,791 tons, and the total industrial silicon inventory (weekly) increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 2,200 tons to 407,700 tons [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract and the near-month contract both decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 43,460 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 190 yuan to -1,460 yuan/ton [4] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers remained unchanged, the prices of battery cells remained unchanged, and the prices of some photovoltaic modules increased slightly [4] 2. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6] - Downstream Product Prices: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13] - Inventory: The charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19] - Cost and Profit: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25] 3. Team Introduction - The nonferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has more than a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [35]