农业银行（601288）：业绩增速领跑大行，不良关注率双降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates are leading among state-owned banks, with 2024 revenue and net profit increasing by 2.26% and 4.72% year-on-year, respectively, marking an acceleration compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% at the end of 2024, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [8] - The bank is well-positioned to benefit from urban-rural integration and has a strong focus on county-level financial services, which is expected to drive growth [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Agricultural Bank's total assets, loans, and financial investments grew by 8.4%, 10.13%, and 23.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.56% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a significant rise of 26.3% [4] - The bank's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 710,555 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.26% [12] Loan Growth - Agricultural Bank's loan portfolio saw a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, with corporate loans growing by 10.6% and personal loans by 9.35% [5] - The bank's county-level loans accounted for over 40% of its domestic loan portfolio, with a balance of 9.85 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [5] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.3%, with a coverage ratio of 299.61% [8] - The bank's overdue loan ratio and attention ratio decreased, indicating a stable asset quality [8] Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to see revenue and profit growth accelerate in 2024, maintaining its leadership among state-owned banks [9] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate revenue growth rates of -0.96%, 1.81%, and 4.53%, with net profit growth rates of 1.26%, 1.36%, and 2.37%, respectively [9]